2024-12-29-世界银行-清洁技术价值链_利用贸易数据指导复杂的政策空间（第二章）（英）_69页_8mb

Clean Tech Value Chains Analysis Summary

Executive Summary

• Opportunities: EU's Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) creates significant export growth potential for Central and Eastern European countries (BG, HR, PL, RO).
• Simulations: 4CEEs could triple exports under current NZIA targets and quadruple with ambitious targets, except Croatia which could grow over 10-fold.
• Key Countries: Poland benefits most (60% of 4CEEs' projected exports), followed by Romania and Bulgaria.
• Strategic Importance: Industrial strategy design must consider market opportunities, policy toolkits, and avoid fallacy-of-composition risks.

Fast Facts

• The 4CEEs already participate in clean tech value chains but focus on subcomponents (medium complexity).
• Clean tech exports from the 4CEEs range from US$122m (Croatia) to over US$3 billion (Poland).
• Poland is the most connected country in clean tech value chains, while Croatia and Bulgaria operate on "disconnected islands."

Detailed Analysis

The EU Green Deal Industrial Plan Impact

• The EU introduced ambitious clean tech sector policies with NZIA aiming for 40% EU domestic manufacturing by 2030.
• Key mechanisms include NZIA (production targets) and TCTF (state aid for subsidies).

Trade and Export Analysis

• Gravity Model: 4CEEs' actual exports fall short of expected based on country characteristics.
  • The gaps: Romania (+23%), Croatia (+87%), Bulgaria (+52%), Poland (+8%).
• Scenarios: Under NZIA, clean tech exports in 2030 could reach 1-4% of GDP (Poland ~2%, Romania 1%, Bulgaria 3.6%).

Export Opportunity by Country and Value Chain

• Poland: Highest relative economic complexity and opportunities in EV batteries, heat pumps, solar PV.
• Romania: Good potential, but lags in battery exports despite higher baseline exports.
• Bulgaria: Lowest green complexity ranking, exporting low/mid-complexity clean tech products.
• Croatia: Limited opportunities overall but strong in wind technology.

Policy Recommendations for Industrial Strategy Design

• The Why: Clearly define goals (economic resilience, job creation) to guide strategy.
• The What: Target clean tech sectors strategically (green tech portfolio).
• The How: Apply broad policy toolkit, including demand-side and supply-side measures.

Investment Requirements

• Estimated capital investments needed: US$1-5 billion per country, with Croatia requiring the most (US$5 billion).
• Clean tech exports could become a significant driver of industrial employment in CEEs.

Across-Country Comparison

• Market Access: Poland is highly integrated into global supply chains, while Croatia and Bulgaria have limited connectivity.

Annexes

• EU NZIA Net Zero Technologies: Lists clean tech technologies supported by the EU plan.
• Onshoring Attractiveness Score: A composite index indicating onshoring potential across demand, supply, and market access indicators.

Summary completed based on fine-grained analysis from the EU Regular Economic Report focusing on clean tech value chains for Central and Eastern European countries.