2023-09-23-未来能源研究所-对抗不确定后果的不确定补救措施_以太阳能地球工程为例_64页_1mb

Summary of "Uncertain Remedies to Fight Uncertain Consequences: The Case of Solar Geoengineering"

This paper analyzes the role of solar geoengineering as a potential remedy for climate change, emphasizing the significant uncertainties in its implementation. Using the SolACE integrated assessment model, the authors examine how uncertainties in damages and cooling efficiency affect optimal deployment strategies and the social cost of carbon (SCC).

Key findings include:

• Solar geoengineering can reduce climate damages but is associated with high uncertainties in damages and cooling effectiveness.
• Uncertainty decreases the optimal level of sulfur deployment compared to deterministic models, with reductions being small but notable.
• Anticipating learning from initial deployment can make geoengineering more attractive, as policy makers condition strategies on realized uncertainties.
• Deployment is likely to be discontinued after the learning phase, with a significant probability in scenarios close to exceeding climate targets.
• Uncertainty and the potential use of geoengineering reduce the incentive to mitigate greenhouse gases, though the SCC remains substantial.

The paper suggests that while geoengineering is a valuable tool, accounting for uncertainties is crucial. It highlights the trade-offs between short-term benefits and long-term risks, advocating for balanced and forward-looking policy approaches.