20260320-招银国际-小米集团-W-01810.HK-Key_takeaways_of_new-gen_SU7_and_new_MiMo-V2_model_releases_8页_932kb

Xiaomi (1810 HK) Summary

Core Content

Xiaomi recently launched its new-gen SU7 EV and introduced three new MiMo-V2 models (Pro, Omni, TTS), marking a significant step in its premium EV and AI ecosystem strategies. The SU7 features an upgraded 800V silicon carbide platform, next-gen LiDAR, and advanced computing chips, offering ultrafast charging and extended range up to 902 km. It is positioned as a benchmark in the premium EV market with a starting price of RMB219,900. The MiMo-V2 models are designed to enhance Xiaomi's "Human x Car x Home" ecosystem, with the Pro model ranking 8th in the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and 1st in usage on OpenRouter, highlighting its AI capabilities.

Key Highlights

• New-gen SU7:

  • Upgraded 800V platform for faster charging and longer range.
  • Enhanced urban NOA capabilities with next-gen LiDAR and Snapdragon 8 Gen-3, NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Thor.
  • Starting price: RMB219,900.
  • Expected to drive premium share gains and strengthen brand equity.

• MiMo-V2 Models:

  • MiMo-V2-Pro: 1T+ parameters, 42B active parameters, 1mn context window.
  • MiMo-V2-Omni: Multimodal understanding and strong agent capabilities.
  • MiMo-V2-TTS: Large-scale voice synthesis model for natural, controllable speech.
  • These models support Xiaomi's AI integration and ecosystem expansion.

Financial Overview

• Earnings Revision:

  • Adjusted FY25-27E EPS by 6-13% due to higher AI investments and industry headwinds.
  • New SOTP-based target price: HK$47.16, implying 28.8x FY26E P/E.
  • Current price: HK$36.32, with a 29.8% upside to the target price.

• Revenue Projections:

  • FY23A: RMB365,903 mn
  • FY24A: RMB454,726 mn
  • FY25E: RMB516,622 mn
  • FY26E: RMB611,379 mn
  • FY27E: RMB611,379 mn
  • YoY growth is expected to slow down in FY26E due to market demand softness and industry headwinds.

• Adjusted Net Profit:

  • FY23A: RMB27,235 mn
  • FY24A: RMB38,182 mn
  • FY25E: RMB39,054 mn
  • FY26E: RMB45,719 mn
  • FY27E: RMB45,719 mn
  • Adjusted net profit margin is expected to decline slightly in FY26E.

• Valuation:

  • Target price is derived from SOTP methodology.
  • Xiaomi's smartphone, AIoT, and internet businesses are valued at 18x, 23x, and 25x FY26E P/E respectively.
  • EV business is valued at 2.0x FY26E P/S.
  • The implied 28.8x FY26E P/E is justified by global smartphone share gains, premiumization, IoT expansion, and EV shipment momentum.

Shareholding and Market Data

• Shareholding Structure:

  • Lin Bin: 8.6%
  • Smart Mobile Holdings Ltd: 8.6%

• Stock Data:

  • Market Cap: HK$767,877.4 mn
  • Average 3-month turnover: HK$5,532.8 mn
  • 52-week High/Low: HK$60.15/HK$31.58
  • Total issued shares: 21,142.0 mn

• Share Performance (12-mth):

  • 1-month: -0.9%
  • 3-month: -10.4%
  • 6-month: -35.9%

Upcoming Catalysts

• 4Q25 results
• New SU7 orders
• Overseas expansion
• EV capacity expansion

Valuation Methodology

• SOTP-based Valuation:
  • Smart phones: 18x P/E
  • AIoT and lifestyle products: 23x P/E
  • Internet services: 25x P/E
  • EV Business: 2.0x P/S
  • Total valuation: HK$1,123,885 mn
  • Target price: HK$47.16

Financial Summary

• Income Statement:

  • Revenue: RMB365,903 mn (FY24A), expected to grow to RMB611,379 mn (FY27E).
  • Adjusted net profit: RMB27,235 mn (FY24A), expected to grow to RMB45,719 mn (FY27E).
  • Gross margin: 20.9% (FY24A), expected to remain stable at 22.4% (FY26E).

• Balance Sheet:

  • Total assets: RMB273,507 mn (FY22A), expected to grow to RMB618,134 mn (FY27E).
  • Total liabilities: RMB129,584 mn (FY22A), expected to grow to RMB252,003 mn (FY27E).
  • Shareholders' equity: RMB143,923 mn (FY22A), expected to grow to RMB366,131 mn (FY27E).

• Cash Flow:

  • Net cash from operations: RMB41,300 mn (FY23A), expected to fluctuate with growth and investment.
  • Net cash from investing: RMB15,549 mn (FY23A), expected to be negative in FY25E due to capital expenditure.
  • Net cash from financing: RMB-7,855 mn (FY23A), expected to be positive in FY25E due to share issues.

Profitability and Growth

• Growth Rates:

  • Revenue growth: 35% (FY24A), expected to slow to 18.3% (FY27E).
  • Adjusted net profit growth: 41.3% (FY24A), expected to decline slightly to 17.1% (FY27E).

• Profitability:

  • Gross margin: 20.9% (FY24A), expected to remain stable at 22.4% (FY26E).
  • Adjusted net margin: 7.4% (FY24A), expected to decline slightly to 7.5% (FY27E).
  • ROE: 13.3% (FY24A), expected to decline to 14.5% (FY27E).

Conclusion

• Recommendation: Maintain BUY
• Target Price: HK$47.16
• Justification: Strong AI investment, premium EV strategy, and ecosystem integration.
• Upcoming Catalysts: 4Q25 results, new product launches, and EV expansion.