2025-05-22-Jefferies-思爱普（SAP）_两步前进_一步后退_8页_157kb

SAP Equity Research Summary

Flash Note

• Rating: BUY
• Target Price: €300 (from €265.80, +13%)
• Duration: LONG

Key Highlights

1. AI Roadmap: Sapphire conference emphasized progress, focusing on AI's long-term value for customers and SAP.
   • Joule: Now available across non-SAP applications. Capable of answering complex queries, supported by harmonized SAP Business Data Cloud (with Databricks).
   • Use Cases: Target increased from 100 (12m ago) to 400 by end-2025.
   • AI Agents: Capable of extracting value across end-to-end processes.
   • Data Layer: Importance rising; SAP has valuable business data and semantic context.
2. Short-Term Hurdle: Constrained Free Cash Flow (FCF), currently ~3.5% below target (~€165.26). However, long-term growth potential is emphasized.
3. Partnership Feedback (Positive): IBM, Capgemini, Deloitte express considerable client interest but question ECC migration to S4, mentioning cautiousness due to possible tariff impacts.

Financial Implications

• Growth Sustainability: Cloud growth is primarily driven by new logos and cross-sell/upsell, not just temporary migration, suggesting a "higher for longer" runway.
• FCF Concern: CFO acknowledged higher FY26/27 FCF guidance (up to 4%) using a specific methodology, attributable to temporary factors. Adjustment is expected over time (via higher EBIT), supported by long-duration growth.
• Chart 1 context: Theoretical FCF appears higher compared to historical valuation and earnings (VAFCF) due to temporary factor inclusion.

Key Risks

• Lower than expected cloud growth or demand.
• Weaker than expected cost controls leading to profit reduction.
• Flawed FCF guidance (or underperformance).

Valuation

• Methodology: PT based on CY26E FCF yield after share-based payments.
• Comparable: Positioned below Oracle.
• Risks: Lower IT services spending, wage inflation, integration risks for ALTR.

Price Target History

• Flipped from €140 to €300+ over recent years.

Analyst Information

• Charles Brennan, Shimoni Agarwal, Hannes Leitner, Marco Maglioli (Equity Analyst/Risk).
• Holdings Report/Audits typically disclaim analyst independence in external distribution of research.

## Company Description
*   Founded in 1972, core ERP software provider.
*   Current CEO.
*   Major shift to cloud-based HANA-software portfolio.
*   Largest shareholder, spun off via demerger.

**Note:** The historical Holdings report essentially contains disclaimers about analyst independence/regulatory filings restrictions, so we exclude that portion of the provided text in the summary.