2014年-世界发展银行全球_Ghana_Economic_Update_October_2014_20页_1mb

GHANA ECONOMIC UPDATE - OCTOBER 2014

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of Ghana's macroeconomic developments and trends in poverty, inequality, and labor during 2014. It highlights the challenges faced by the economy and the implications for growth and social indicators.

Part I: Recent Economic Developments

1. Balance of Payments

• Current Account Deficit: Remained around 10.9% of GDP in the first half of 2014, slightly improved from 9.9% in the first half of 2013.
• Merchandise Trade: The trade deficit narrowed due to a faster decline in imports than exports. Gold exports fell by 20% y-o-y, while cocoa exports increased slightly.
• Services and Income Deficit: Increased to 14.9% of GDP in the first half of 2014, up from 8.4% in 2013.
• Capital and Financial Account: Recorded a net inflow of $426 million (2.4% of GDP) in the first half of 2014.
• Currency Depreciation: The Ghanaian Cedi depreciated by 35% in the official interbank market and 43% in the forex bureau market by July 2014.
• International Reserves: Declined to $601 million (covering 12 days of imports) by June 2014.
• Eurobond and Cocobod Loan: Expected to provide a boost to international reserves.

2. Fiscal Developments

• Fiscal Deficit: Reached 9.2% of GDP in the first half of 2014, up from 8.8% in the same period in 2013.
• Revenue Shortfall: Non-tax revenue fell to 18.1% of GDP, while tax revenue increased slightly to 15.6% of GDP.
• Wage Bill: Grew by 25.7% y-o-y, reaching 8.8% of GDP. The wage to tax ratio increased to 56.5% in June 2014, surpassing the planned 48.5%.
• Interest Payments: Rose to 6.2% of GDP, with domestic interest payments increasing to 5.3% and external to 0.9%.
• Public Debt: Reached 58% of GDP in August 2014, excluding arrears and SOE debt. With these included, public debt exceeded 70% of GDP.
• Debt Composition: Short-term instruments accounted for 36.2% of total domestic debt in July 2014, while medium-term instruments remained the largest share. The central bank held 24.1% of the total domestic debt.

3. Money and Prices

• Monetary Policy: The Bank of Ghana (BoG) increased its policy rate by 300 bps in 2014 to control inflation and stabilize the currency.
• Inflation: Headline inflation reached 15.9% in August 2014, up from 13.5% in December 2013. Non-food inflation was 24%, while food inflation remained low at 5.1%.
• Producer Price Inflation: Reached 48.3% in August 2014, driven by exchange rate depreciation and rising costs in the manufacturing sector.
• Liquidity: Total liquidity in the banking sector (M2+) increased by 32% to Ghs30.7 billion by June 2014.

4. Economic Growth

• GDP Growth: Slowed to 6.7% in the first quarter of 2014, down from 9% in the same period in 2013.
• Sector Contributions: The agriculture sector contributed 2.4% to growth, while the manufacturing sector contracted by 21.2%.
• Service Sector: Contribution to growth dropped slightly to 4.9% in Q1 2014.
• Oil Production: Increased by 16.3% in real terms, contributing 2.3% to growth.
• Full-Year Growth: Expected to remain around 6.0% for 2014, with a modest outlook of 4-6% per capita in the long-term.

5. Outlook

• Growth Prospects: Expected to remain modest at around 6% for 2014, with long-term potential of 4-6% per capita.
• Inflation: Not expected to return to the target band of 13 ± 2% before the end of the year.
• Risks: Short-term risks include rising wage bill, high interest rates, and loss of international reserves. Medium-term risks include energy sector constraints, rising public debt, and volatility in international commodity prices.

Part II: Trends in Poverty, Inequality & Labor

6. Introduction

• The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the interplay between macroeconomic developments and poverty and inequality trends.
• It highlights that poverty reduction in Ghana is closely linked to labor market developments.

7. Poverty and Inequality in Ghana

• Poverty Rate: Decreased to 24% in 2013 from 31% in 2006, indicating progress towards the goal of halving poverty by 2015.
• Regional Disparities: Poverty is more pronounced in rural areas (38%) compared to urban areas (11%).
• Geographic Disparities: The Rural Savannah region has the highest poverty rate at 55%, while the Greater Accra Metropolitan area has only 3.5%.
• Inequality: Measured by the Gini coefficient, increased from 41.9 in 2006 to 42.3 in 2013.
• Labor Market: Participation rates increased, and the share of agriculture employment (lowest wage sector) decreased, contributing to poverty reduction.
• Unemployment: Official unemployment rate is 4.4%, but this is likely underestimated due to the informal sector's size.
• Underemployment: Reached 33%, indicating a significant portion of the workforce is not fully employed.

Key Information

• Fiscal Vulnerability: The fiscal deficit is the largest source of economic vulnerability, driven by high wage bill and interest costs.
• Public Debt: Reached 58% of GDP in August 2014, with potential for further increase.
• Currency Depreciation: The Cedi depreciated significantly against the US dollar, impacting import prices and inflation.
• Inflation: Headline inflation rose to 15.9% in August 2014, with non-food inflation at 24% and producer price inflation at 48.3%.
• Poverty Reduction: Progress has been made, but disparities remain high, especially between urban and rural areas.
• Labor Market: While participation rates increased, the informal sector and underemployment pose challenges to accurate measurement of employment and poverty.

Conclusion

The report underscores the critical need for policy stability and inclusive growth to sustain poverty reduction and economic development in Ghana. The interplay between fiscal policy, monetary policy, and labor market dynamics will be key to achieving these goals.