20211130-IEA-Clean_Energy_Investment_Trends_2021_46页_21mb

报告摘要

Clean Energy Investment Trends 2021: Evolving Financial Performance Expectations & Power Procurement Mechanisms In India
Summary

Solar PV capacity awarded in tenders dropped sharply to 2.6 GW in H1 2021, down from 15.3 GW in H1 2020. Wind capacity remained sluggish, with no new projects awarded in 2020 and only 1.2 GW in H1 2021.
State off-takers dominated capacity awards in H1 2021, reflecting delays in securing power sale agreements (PSAs).

Debt costs fell due to accommodative monetary policy, with solar and wind debt rates ranging from 9.25-9.50%. CPSUs and international IPPs accessed lower-cost debt, driving record-low tariffs (e.g., INR 2.00/kWh).
Equity IRR (EIRR) for solar PV dropped to 13.3% in H1 2021 from 14.9% in 2020, primarily due to aggressive bidding by CPSUs and IPPs, leading to reduced returns for other developers.
Hybrid tenders (solar-wind) initially offered higher EIRRs (up to 400 bps above vanilla projects) but converged with vanilla peers by early 2021.

A 20% increase in solar module prices could reduce EIRR by ~45%. Supply chain disruptions and input cost volatility pose significant risks to realized returns.
Currency risks and illiquidity in hedging tools increase costs for international investors in the Indian market.

Land conflicts and transmission challenges, particularly in Gujarat and Rajasthan, constrain renewable project deployment.
Solar parks’ share in auctions declined from 35% in 2019 to ~0% post-2020, linked to acquisition disputes and ecological preservation policies (e.g., Great Indian Bustard protection).

Hybrid tenders incentivize renewable integration, though high oversizing requires curtailment, impacting returns.
Market concentration increased in solar PV (share of top 10 developers rose), driven by large players like Adani Green Energy and CPSUs (NTPC, SJVN).

Address land acquisition delays and transmission infrastructure gaps to accelerate renewable deployment.
Develop long-term hedging solutions to mitigate currency risks and attract foreign capital.
Balance aggressive auction tariffs with sustainable returns to avoid crowding out smaller developers.

Source: Clean Energy Investment Trends 2021, Centre for Energy Finance (CEEW) & International Energy Agency (IEA).

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