2004年-世界发展银行全球_Private_Power_Projects___Annual_Investment_Flows_Grew_by_44_Percent_in_2003_4页_242kb

Private Power Projects Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of private participation in electricity infrastructure projects in developing countries, focusing on investment trends, regional activities, and the role of different sponsors during the period 1990–2003. It highlights the World Bank's Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) Project Database as a key source of information on private sector involvement in infrastructure, particularly in the electricity sector.

Main Points

• Global Investment Trends (2003):

  • Total private investment in electricity projects reached $14 billion in 2003.
  • Investment flows increased in lower-middle-income countries, rising from $1.7 billion in 2002 to $4.8 billion in 2003, the highest since 2000.
  • Investment in upper-middle-income countries also recovered, reaching $8.4 billion in 2003, similar to the level in 1999.
  • Investment in low-income countries increased by 17% to over $730 million, though it remained at the fourth lowest level in the period 1990–2003.
  • Overall, investment flows in 2003 were 28% of the 1997 peak.

• Regional Trends:

  • East Asia and Pacific saw the strongest growth with 9 new projects and $5.5 billion in investment, the highest since 1998.
  • Latin America had 17 new projects, a decrease from 2002, but investment remained stable. Most projects were greenfield power plants in Brazil and Mexico.
  • Europe and Central Asia had 6 new projects, with Bulgaria's Maritza East III being the largest.
  • Middle East and North Africa had only 1 project in Morocco.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa had 4 small projects, including rural electrification and management contracts.
  • South Asia had limited activity, mainly focused on the expansion of an existing power plant.

• Private Participation Focus:

  • Private activity in electricity primarily focused on generation, with stand-alone power plants (IPPs) accounting for 85% of the investment in 2003.
  • Distribution companies received the remaining 15%.
  • Of the total investment in the electricity sector from 1990–2003, 70% went to stand-alone power plants, and 15% to distribution companies.

• Project Types:

  • Greenfield projects (BOT, BOO) dominated private activity, especially in nonliberalized markets.
  • Divestitures and concessions were also common, particularly in existing power plants.
  • Greenfield power plants accounted for 78% of the investment in IPPs from 1990–2003.

• Sponsors:

  • Regional and local sponsors became more active in developing countries.
  • Four of the top 10 sponsors in 2001–03 were from developing economies: Malakoff (Malaysia), CPFL Energia (Brazil), China Light and Power (Hong Kong), and Banpu (Thailand).
  • Global sponsors such as AES Corporation, Electricité de France, and SUEZ were still significant, but their involvement decreased after 2001 due to financial and political challenges.
  • The top 10 sponsors accounted for 34% of total investment flows in 1990–2003, down from over 40% in 1990–2001.

• Challenges and Decline:

  • The booming period (1996–2000) saw annual investment flows average $29.8 billion, but this declined significantly afterward.
  • By 2003, annual flows averaged $12.9 billion, slightly higher than the $12.2 billion in 1990–95.
  • 50 projects (involving over $26 billion) were canceled or in distress by the end of 2003, representing 10.5% of total investment.
  • Factors contributing to the decline include:
    • Deteriorating financial situations of sponsors.
    • Concerns over renationalization, renegotiation, or disappointing returns.
    • Pessimism about emerging markets following the East Asian, Russian, and Argentine crises.

Key Information

• The PPI Project Database tracks private sector involvement in infrastructure, including energy, telecommunications, transport, and water.
• Stand-alone power plants (IPPs) were the main focus of private investment, with greenfield projects being the most common.
• Regional sponsors gained prominence as global sponsors withdrew due to financial and political challenges.
• Investment in 2003 was still 28% of the 1997 peak, showing a long-term decline in private activity in the electricity sector.
• Cancellation and distress were significant issues, with over $26 billion in investments affected by 2003.

Conclusion

Despite the decline from peak levels in the mid-1990s, private participation in electricity infrastructure continued to grow in certain regions, particularly East Asia and Latin America, while Europe and Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa saw more modest or stable growth. The shift from global to regional and local sponsors, along with the focus on generation over distribution, reflects changing dynamics in private investment in the electricity sector. However, the sector still faces challenges such as financial instability, political risk, and the impact of past crises on investor confidence.