亚开行-丧失领土：行政区划对热带土地利用的影响（英）-2023.12-43页_3mb

Summary of "Losing Territory: The Effect of Administrative Splits on Land Use in the Tropics"

This study analyzes the impact of district splits on deforestation in Indonesia's tropical regions using a spatial regression discontinuity design. Key findings include a 35% reduction in deforestation rates within new districts compared to existing ones, both before and after splits. This decline results from strategic behavior by existing governments, decelerating land-use changes like deforestation to preserve medium-term revenues from activities such as oil palm expansion. The effect is temporary, lasting up to three years post-split, after which deforestation rates equalize as new districts invest in agriculture.

Conducted on data from 14,000 Indonesian villages between 2002 and 2014, the research highlights Indonesia's post-1998 decentralization reforms as a key context. While other mechanisms, such as changes in constituency preferences or administrative capacity, were considered, the primary driver is anticipatory government actions. The findings offer an unexpected positive consequence for forest conservation, potentially aiding policymakers in crafting strategies to enhance environmental outcomes under decentralization.