2025-05-22-Jefferies-自由港麦克莫兰公司（FCX）_曼雅尔冶炼厂重启_9页_1mb

Company Update: Freeport-McMoRan's Manyar Smelter in Indonesia has been restored after a fire in October 2024, restarting production of copper cathodes by end of June, with full capacity by year-end. This is ahead of schedule, potentially boosting free cash flow by reducing treatment charges and export duties. Freeport continues to export copper concentrates until September 2025.

Rating and Valuation: Maintained "BUY" recommendation, with a price target of $50 (up from previous levels), current price $37.70. Valuation at 2025 EV/EBITDA 9.4x and 2026 7.1x.

Key Drivers: Benefits from declining costs in Indonesia post-smelter ramp-up, operational improvements in US mines, organic growth potential, rising gold prices, and favorable US copper policies. Long-term upside from copper price increases.

Risks: Possible capital restrictions in Indonesia, copper price volatility, and potential lower capital returns if growth projects don't materialize.

Catalysts: Changes in copper price, board approvals for growth projects, and improved macroeconomic conditions.