2016年-世界发展银行全球_South_Africa_Economic_Update_February_2016___Promoting_Faster_Growth_and_Poverty_Alleviation_through_Competition_80页_2mb

South Africa Economic Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of South Africa's economic developments and the potential of competition policy to stimulate faster growth and reduce poverty. It highlights the challenges faced by the South African economy, including weak growth, high unemployment, and structural issues in key sectors. The report also emphasizes the role of competition policy in addressing anticompetitive behavior and promoting efficiency and productivity.

Main Views

• Global Economic Trends:

  • Global growth remained subdued in 2015, estimated at 2.4%, down from 2.6% in 2014.
  • Emerging markets saw a decline in growth, while high-income countries continued to recover.
  • Commodity prices fell significantly, with energy, metals, and agricultural raw materials down by an average of 55% from their 2011 peaks.
  • Global financial market volatility increased due to slowing emerging economies, diverging monetary policies, and commodity price declines.

• South Africa's Economic Outlook:

  • Growth in South Africa slowed to 1.5% in 2014 and 1.9% in 2015, with projections of further decline to 0.8% in 2016 and 1.1% in 2017.
  • The country faces significant challenges including drought, power shortages, and policy uncertainty.
  • The current account deficit narrowed, but external financing remains a vulnerability.
  • The government is under pressure to meet fiscal targets, with risks of a ratings downgrade.

• Competition Policy:

  • Competition policy is seen as a key tool to promote growth and poverty alleviation.
  • It encourages firms to become more productive, invest more, and compete effectively.
  • The report argues that reducing market concentration and improving regulation can help lower input costs and boost productivity.

Key Information

Economic Developments and Prospects

• Global Growth:

  • 2.4% in 2015, down from 2.6% in 2014.
  • High-income countries grew at 1.6% in 2015, while developing countries saw 4.3% growth, a post-crisis low.
  • Emerging markets faced large capital outflows, with global investors pulling $735 billion in 2015.

• South Africa's Growth:

  • Growth slowed to 1.5% in 2014, from a post-crisis high of 3.2% in 2011.
  • In 2015, growth reached 1.9% but then moderated, turning negative in Q2.
  • Real GDP growth is expected to be 1.3% in 2015, 0.8% in 2016, and 1.1% in 2017.

• Unemployment and Inflation:

  • Unemployment remained high at 25.5% in Q3 2015, with 5.4 million people unemployed.
  • Inflation was relatively subdued in 2015 due to lower food and fuel prices.
  • The South African Reserve Bank raised the policy rate by 100 basis points to 6.75% in 2015–2016.

• Fiscal Outlook:

  • The government revised growth projections downward, with 1.5% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016.
  • The fiscal deficit is expected to increase to 3.3% and 3.2% of GDP in 2016–17 and 2017–18, respectively.
  • Debt stabilization is expected in 2018–19 and 2019–20, but risks remain due to lower growth and contingent liabilities.

Promoting Faster Growth and Poverty Alleviation Through Competition

• Competition Policy Impact:

  • Competition policy is crucial for improving productivity and promoting economic growth.
  • It can also reduce poverty by ensuring fair pricing and increasing access to goods and services.

• Cartel Detection and Sanctioning:

  • A new database captures actions against cartels from 2005 to 2015, showing that anticompetitive behavior is detected frequently.
  • Excluding construction, 76 cartels were detected and sanctioned, with 40% identified through corporate leniency policy.
  • Cartels often involve dominant firms colluding with smaller ones, and they persist for an average of eight years.

• Market Characteristics:

  • Cartelized markets are typically characterized by high concentration, high barriers to entry, and homogenous products.
  • Trade associations and excess capacity are also facilitators of collusion.
  • In 25 of the 76 cases, trade associations were found to have explicitly facilitated collusive behavior.

• Case Studies:

  • Cement Market:
    • The breakup of the SACU cement cartel led to a reduction in input costs for downstream firms by R1.1–1.4 billion annually.
    • It also resulted in the first greenfield entry in the sector in 80 years.
  • Telecommunications:
    • The report highlights the need for reform in this sector to reduce costs and improve competition.
    • South Africa ranks poorly in international competitiveness indicators, with high input costs for services like transport and telecommunications.

• Potential Benefits of Competition Reforms:

  • A 10% reduction in price-cost margins could boost productivity growth by 2–2.5% annually.
  • Simulated scenarios suggest that reducing regulatory restrictiveness in professional services could increase value added in related industries by $1.4–1.6 billion, equivalent to 0.4–0.5 percentage points of GDP growth.

• Poverty Alleviation:

  • Preventing a 10% price increase could reduce poverty by a significant number of individuals.
  • The report underscores the importance of effective competition policy in ensuring that public funds benefit the poor and improve living standards.

Conclusion

• The South African economy is at a critical juncture, with weak growth and high unemployment.
• Competition policy is a promising avenue for stimulating growth and alleviating poverty.
• Reforms are needed to address market concentration, improve regulation, and reduce input costs.
• The government must balance fiscal adjustments with bold reforms to ensure sustainable growth and poverty reduction.