20180831-法国巴黎银行-Argentina__Another_round_of_negotiations_8页_376kb

报告摘要

Argentina: Another Round of Negotiations with the IMF

Core Content

Argentina is set to initiate a new round of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) next week, with the goal of securing front-loaded disbursements in exchange for a larger fiscal adjustment. The revised fiscal targets will be announced on Monday before Minister of the Treasury Nicolás Dujovne travels to Washington, D.C. for discussions. The focus of the fiscal adjustment is expected to shift significantly towards tax increases, as the government has previously relied on spending cuts.

Main Points

New Negotiations: Minister Nicolás Dujovne will begin talks with the IMF on Tuesday, aiming to adjust the current programme to secure earlier disbursements.
Fiscal Adjustment Focus: The new fiscal adjustment will heavily depend on tax increases, with spending cuts also being considered.
IMF Support: The IMF has expressed full support for Argentina, indicating that the negotiations are likely to result in a new agreement.
Tax Reforms and Export Taxes: The original fiscal plan included a modest tax reform and export tax cuts, but these have been delayed or suspended. The suspension of export tax cuts on soybeans is seen as a potential source of additional revenue.
Export Tax Trends: Export taxes currently represent 2.5% of tax revenues, down from a high of 14% in 2003. The local press has debated the possibility of increasing these taxes to support fiscal adjustment.
Fiscal Targets: The revised fiscal targets will include a range of measures, with a significant portion expected to come from the revenue side (taxes), as detailed in Table 1.

Key Fiscal Measures

Measure	2018 (%)	2019 (%)
Delayed implementation of tax reform	0.0	0.3
Export tax on soy products	0.0	0.1
Reductions in energy and transport subsidies	0.3	0.7
Savings on goods and services spending	0.1	0.2
Real wage and employment cuts for public employees	0.2	0.3
Lower transfers to state-owned enterprises	0.1	0.1
Lower discretionary transfers to provinces	0.5	1.2
Lower capital spending	0.3	0.6
Scale back tax expenditures	0.0	0.1
Sale of land and amortisation of pension fund assets	0.2	0.6
Total	1.7	4.2

Additional Spending Cuts

Capital Spending Cuts: Further reductions in capital spending, particularly in public works, are under consideration.
Ministry Reductions: A potential reduction in the number of ministries has been discussed, but President Macri has rejected this idea, suggesting it will not have a major impact on overall spending.

Context and Implications

The original fiscal adjustment aimed for a 1.3% primary fiscal deficit in 2019, but the new plan is expected to be more aggressive.
The government's decision to delay tax reforms and suspend export tax cuts reflects the economic challenges and the need for more immediate fiscal consolidation.
The suspension of export tax cuts could be a strategic move to increase revenue without further devaluing the peso.

Legal and Regulatory Information

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