2022-03-26-莱坊-UK_Retail_Sales_Dashboard_February_2022_1页_368kb

报告摘要

Retail Sales Dashboard – February 2022 Summary

Core Content

The Retail Sales Dashboard for February 2022 provides an overview of the performance of retail sales in the UK, comparing the most recent month and three-month period to the same period in the previous year. It highlights both the overall growth and sector-specific trends, as well as the impact of seasonal adjustments and the broader economic context, such as GDP growth.

Main Points

1. Overall Growth

Value (Seasonally Adjusted, Excluding Fuel):
Increased by +11.1% YoY, indicating a strong overall performance in retail sales despite potential challenges like the cost of living crisis.
Volume (Seasonally Adjusted, Excluding Fuel):
Rose by +4.6% YoY, showing moderate growth in the number of transactions.
Including Fuel:
- Value increased by +15.0% YoY.
- Volume increased by +7.0% YoY.

2. Non-Food Sector Recovery

Non-Food sectors that were previously affected by lockdowns showed significant growth, with a +36.8% YoY increase.
Key drivers of this rebound included:
- Clothing: +108.2% YoY
- Books: +86.0% YoY
- Cosmetics: +35.0% YoY

3. Decline in Online Sales

Online sales continued to decline, with a -18.1% YoY drop.
Grocery online sales experienced a steeper decline at -24.1% YoY, suggesting a shift in consumer behavior or a slowdown in digital adoption for essential goods.

4. Caution for Future Performance

Sales figures are expected to be negatively skewed in the coming months due to the challenging comparison base of the emergence from Lockdown V3.
This may lead to annualisation effects that distort the actual performance, reinforcing the narrative of consumer squeeze.

5. Monthly Performance (Seasonally Adjusted)

Month	Volumes (NSA)	Values (NSA)	Volumes (SA)	Values (SA)
December	-0.5%	+4.3%	-3.3%	+1.7%
January	+6.4%	+12.0%	+7.5%	+13.1%
February	+3.5%	+10.0%	+4.6%	+11.1%

Volumes (NSA) showed a slight decline in December, but strong growth in January and February.
Values (NSA) demonstrated consistent growth across all months, with the highest increase in January.
Seasonally Adjusted (SA) figures for both volumes and values showed similar trends, though with slightly lower growth rates.

6. Quarterly Performance vs GDP

Quarter	Volume	Value	GDP Growth
Q4 2020	+0.5%	+0.3%	+1.5%
Q1 2021	-6.0%	-5.7%	-1.3%
Q2 2021	+11.2%	+12.2%	+5.4%
Q3 2021	-4.9%	-3.5%	+1.1%
Q4 2021	+0.2%	+1.7%	+1.0%

Retail sales showed positive growth in Q2 2021, aligning with the broader economic recovery.
However, there was negative growth in Q1 and Q3 of 2021, reflecting the impact of lockdowns and economic fluctuations.
GDP Growth remained relatively stable, with a slight dip in Q1 2021 and a recovery in Q2 and Q4.

Key Information

Seasonally Adjusted (SA) figures are used to remove the impact of seasonal variations, providing a clearer picture of underlying trends.
Non-Food sectors have shown remarkable recovery, especially clothing, books, and cosmetics.
Online sales are still declining, particularly in the grocery sector.
Consumer behavior may be shifting, with a preference for in-store shopping or a slowdown in digital adoption for essential goods.
Future performance should be interpreted with caution due to annualisation effects against a challenging base from Lockdown V3.