2018年-查塔姆研究所_Recent_Political_Developments_in_Kazakhstan_8页_248kb

Summary of REP Roundtable 04/2011: Recent Political Developments in Kazakhstan

Core Content

In early 2011, Kazakhstan was preparing for a Presidential election, following a period of public and institutional pressure on President Nursultan Nazarbayev to consider a referendum on his continued rule. The President, however, decided to hold a regular election instead, following a constitutional crisis that emerged after a proposed amendment to allow a referendum was vetoed and referred to the Constitutional Council.

Main Points

1. Election Decision and Constitutional Process

• President Nazarbayev visited all regions of Kazakhstan in 2010, during which he was asked about the possibility of holding a referendum.
• A group of five million signatures was collected in support of extending his term.
• The President's office had conducted regular opinion polls showing consistent support around 90%.
• A constitutional amendment was proposed in January 2011 to allow a referendum, but it was vetoed and sent to the Constitutional Council.
• The Constitutional Council's decision was ambiguous, leading to a crisis. Three options were considered:
  • Hold the referendum (unlikely due to public perception).
  • Dissolve parliament and hold an early general election (not supported by the speaker).
  • Call an early Presidential election (chosen as the correct option).
• The election was scheduled for 3 April 2011, with candidates beginning to register.

2. Impact of Regional Protests

• The speaker believed that the events in North Africa (Tunisia and Egypt) had no direct impact on Kazakhstan's decision.
• He cited Kyrgyzstan's political instability as a closer example, emphasizing that Kazakhstan's economic stability and social conditions differ significantly.
• The country's geography and economic resilience make mass uprisings unlikely.

3. Media and Electoral Environment

• The Constitution guarantees all registered candidates a certain amount of airtime on state and private TV channels.
• The state does not control the internet, which has become a key platform for opposition activity.
• The speaker noted the presence of a "virtual opposition" and the lack of strong, legitimate opposition figures.
• The leadership has not yet reached an agreement with the opposition, and the focus is on creating a two-party system.

4. Economic Reforms and Succession Planning

• The President aims to reduce Kazakhstan's dependence on oil and gas through industrial innovation.
• The leadership is open to the idea of a strong middle class as a foundation for democratic values.
• The speaker emphasized that the President is not currently planning for succession, but the issue will be considered closer to 2020.
• A successor would need to go through a competitive election process.

5. Corruption and Political Legitimacy

• Despite efforts to combat corruption, it remains a concern in Kazakhstan.
• 738 officials and two ministers have been arrested, but the President's relatives still have influence in certain sectors.
• The speaker highlighted that the President is not the owner or beneficiary of Kazakhmys, a major state-owned company.
• Political legitimacy is key to success, and the speaker noted that some opposition figures are considered legitimate, while others are seen as "dwarf" or "placed" candidates.

6. International Observers and Electoral Integrity

• The leadership aims to ensure a fair and transparent election process.
• Over 400 independent international observers have been invited to monitor the election.
• The speaker emphasized that falsified results would not be relied upon, as they lead to unstable regimes.

Key Information

• Election Date: 3 April 2011.
• Constitutional Amendment: Proposed to allow a referendum, but vetoed by the President.
• Public Support: Consistently high, around 90% in opinion polls.
• Opposition: Weak and amorphous, with some parties boycotting the election.
• Economic Status: Kazakhstan has a high average income (9,000 USD in 2011) and a strong investment climate.
• Succession Planning: Not a current priority, but will be considered around 2020.
• International Relations: The President values the opinions of the US, UK, and EU.
• Education and Talent: Kazakhstan is investing in education, with 10,000 young people receiving international training.

Conclusion

The roundtable discussion highlighted the President's strong public support, the political and economic stability of Kazakhstan, and the challenges of transitioning to a more pluralistic political system. While the leadership is aware of the risks of long-term rule, they believe the current electoral system is the most viable path forward. The upcoming election is seen as a critical step in maintaining political legitimacy and economic development.