20240513-IMF-Republic_of_Slovenia_2024_Article_IV_Consultation-Press_Release_Staff_Report_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_the_Republic_of_Slovenia_74页_2mb

报告摘要

Economic Growth: Slovenia’s GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in 2023 due to external demand weakening and domestic supply issues, rebounding to ~2% in 2024.
Inflation: Declined from 9–10% in 2023 to ~4% by year-end, mainly driven by energy prices and supply shocks.
Fiscal Position: Deficit reduced to 2.5% in 2023, with plans for 3% in 2024, emphasizing consolidation amid flood recovery costs.
External Sector: Current account moved to a 4.5% surplus in 2023, supporting debt stability.

Fiscal Policy: Sustained consolidation to reduce debt further (from 69% of GDP in 2023 to ~60% long-term). Prioritize reforms in healthcare, pensions, and public wages.
Financial Sector: Maintain a countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) at ~1% to enhance resilience, while monitoring bank asset quality amid high interest rates.
Structural Reforms: Boost productivity through investments in green/digital transition, education, and labor market flexibility to address income convergence with the EU.

External: Geopolitical conflicts, commodity volatility, and demand shocks.
Domestic: Labor shortages, climate-related disasters (post-flood challenges), and delays in reforms.
Macroeconomic: Premature monetary policy easing could hamper disinflation.

Floods in August 2023 caused €3–10 billion in damages, prompting emergency spending (~1% of GDP in 2023–2024) funded by revenue measures and EU support.
Phased reconstruction needed to avoid crowding out other investments.

Growth expected to reach potential by 2026, driven by fiscal space and reforms.
Cooperation with authorities on policy alignment, but risks remain on inflation persistence and structural bottlenecks.


Key recommendations include accelerating reforms and prudent fiscal policies to sustain medium-term stability.

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