世界银行-《东帝汶经济报告》，2023年7月：实现繁荣的途径（英）-46页_2mb

Summary of Timor-Leste Economic Report: Ways to Harvest Prosperity (July 2023)

1. Recent Developments

• The economy expanded by 3.9% in 2022, supported by public consumption and investment.
• Private sector demand stagnated due to persistent inflation (up to 9.7% YoY) and weak consumer confidence.
• Labor force participation remains low (35% in 2021), with high structural unemployment and high reservation wages.
• Fiscal deficits widened during the pandemic and 2021–2022 elections, primarily funded through withdrawals from the Petroleum Fund, which is rapidly depleting.

2. Outlook and Risks

• Medium-term economic growth is projected at 3.4%, contingent on political stability and reforms to encourage private investment.
• Fiscal sustainability is threatened by:
  • A projected Petroleum Fund depletion by 2034.
  • Insufficient domestic revenue to offset deficits.
  • High inflation and natural disasters adding further risks.
• Timor-Leste faces a fiscal cliff if the Petroleum Fund depletes before diversified revenue sources are established.

3. Special Focus: Agriculture as a Catalyst for Prosperity

• Agriculture remains a major employment sector (38% of the workforce) despite declining value-added output.
• Key Challenges:
  • Low agricultural productivity and returns (farmers earn ~USD 3–7/day).
  • Declining cultivated lands and labor force in the sector.
  • Heavy reliance on imports (food imports tripled since 2013; rice is 45% imported).
• Recommendations:
  • Shift from staples to high-value crops (e.g., coffee, fish farming) to boost incomes and reduce imports.
  • Enhance productivity through better seeds, irrigation, and extension services.
  • Support MSMEs and food processing to add value to raw agricultural products.

4. Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Consolidation: Strengthen revenue collection, enforce fiscal rules, and reduce public transfers to improve efficiency.
• Private Sector Development: Remove energy bottlenecks, improve competitiveness, and attract investments despite low FDI inflows.
• Human Capital: Invest in vocational training, health, and early childhood nutrition to address labor shortages and malnutrition.

Recommendations for Authorities

• Prioritize reforms in fiscal rules and revenue mobilization.
• Accelerate diversification away from oil dependence.
• Ensure consistent policies post-elections to stabilize investment and growth.

Annex Notes

• Key Indicators: High poverty (41.8%), inflation (7% in 2022), and vulnerability to external shocks.
• Baseline: Peer analysis identifies benchmarks for growth, labor participation, and fiscal management.