2024-09-29-世界银行-几内亚经济更新_自然资源管理促进发展（英）_46页_872kb

Guinea Economic Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of Guinea's macroeconomic developments and outlook, with a specific focus on the role of natural resource management in the country's development. It outlines the challenges and opportunities associated with the mining sector, the importance of agriculture in structural transformation and climate resilience, and the need for policy reforms to support sustainable growth and poverty reduction.

Main Points

1. Macroeconomic and Poverty Developments

• Economic Growth:

  • Guinea's GDP growth accelerated to 7.1% in 2023, up from 3.7% in 2022.
  • The mining sector, particularly bauxite and gold, was the main driver of growth, with bauxite production increasing by 22% and gold exports by 10%.
  • Investment surges (both private and public) contributed to economic expansion.
  • The poverty rate declined by 3.3 percentage points between 2019 and 2023, but the rate of decline was lower than the per capita GDP growth, indicating limited impact on poverty reduction.

• Inflation and Fiscal Management:

  • Inflation slowed to 9.3% in 2023 from 11.6% in 2022, supported by stable transportation costs and prudent fiscal and monetary policies.
  • The fiscal deficit was reduced to an average of 1.4% of GDP from 2016 to 2023.
  • Tax revenues remained relatively low, averaging 12.7% of GDP, largely due to shortfalls in mining-related revenues.

• Debt and Exchange Rate:

  • Guinea remains at moderate risk of debt distress, with some capacity to absorb shocks.
  • The current account deficit remained high, averaging 10.6% of GDP from 2016 to 2023.
  • The real effective exchange rate (REER) has appreciated since 2016, posing a challenge to the competitiveness of non-mining sectors.

• Outlook:

  • Growth is expected to slow to 4.9% in 2024 due to the impact of the December 2023 fuel depot explosion.
  • Growth is projected to rebound to an average of 6.3% in 2025-2026, driven by mining-related FDI.
  • Inflation is expected to decrease to 8.8% in 2024 and 8.1% on average in 2025-2026.
  • Risks include potential delays in reforms due to political uncertainties, while opportunities include Simandou exports and increased FDI.

2. Agriculture for Structural Transformation and Climate Proofing

• Role of Agriculture:

  • Agriculture contributes 27.8% to national GDP and employs 53% of the population.
  • It is central to climate proofing and inclusive growth, but faces significant challenges due to climate change.

• Climate Change Impacts:

  • Guinea is the 24th most vulnerable country and the 148th most ready country according to the ND-GAIN Country Index.
  • Climate change variables such as rising temperatures, rainfall variability, and sea level rise are expected to significantly impact agricultural productivity and livelihoods.

• Emissions:

  • Agriculture, livestock, and aquaculture account for 52% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while land use and forestry account for 30%.
  • Guinea's overall emissions are low, less than 0.01% of global emissions, but the agricultural sector is a major contributor.

• Agricultural Transformation:

  • The majority of agricultural activities are subsistence-based, with only 10% being commercial.
  • To enhance competitiveness and climate resilience, Guinea must shift to intensive, productivity-driven agricultural practices.

• NDC and Climate Finance:

  • Guinea published its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2021 and has started to build the framework for participation in climate and carbon finance.
  • A total budget of US$13.8 billion is required by 2030 to achieve emissions reduction targets, with a projected gap of around US$11.6 billion.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Domestic Revenue Mobilization and Public Finance Management:

  • Fully implement the bauxite reference price regulation.
  • Recover tax shortfalls from non-compliant companies.
  • Expand digital tax registration, declarations, and payments.
  • Accelerate mechanisms to assess and monitor fiscal obligations of mining companies as Simandou exports start by 2025.

• Macro-Fiscal Stability and Debt Sustainability:

  • Pursue annual fiscal surplus and inflation-targeting monetary policies.
  • Create a stabilization account at the central bank with clear fiscal rules for investments and countercyclical spending.
  • Maximize the concessionality of new debt and strengthen debt management capacity through reforms.

• Access to Infrastructure Services:

  • Ensure cost-recovery tariffs in the electricity and water sectors, including a low social tariff for the poor.
  • Improve the quality and quantity of the road network by rationalizing mandates and increasing fuel levy allocations to the Road Maintenance Fund (FER).

• Human Capital Development:

  • Prioritize education, health, and social protection investments using savings from reduced subsidies.
  • Strengthen the Unified Social Registry (USR) data management and procedures for social program access.

• Climate-Proofing the Economy:

  • Link economic transformation efforts to climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Prioritize policy reforms and investments in climate-vulnerable sectors like agriculture, forestry, and transport.
  • Rethink agricultural input subsidies to support climate-resilient practices and reduce post-harvest losses.
  • Rehabilitate and upgrade irrigation infrastructure to make it more climate-resilient.
  • Invest in water mobilization infrastructure at the communal level.
  • Establish mechanisms to transition agriculture and food systems from subsistence to market-oriented.
  • Promote sustainable forestry practices such as reforestation and afforestation.
  • Upgrade road and power assets to climate-resilient design standards.

Conclusion

Guinea's economic growth is heavily reliant on its mining sector, which, while providing stability and foreign exchange, has limited spillover effects on the broader economy and job creation. Agriculture, although a key sector for inclusive growth and climate resilience, requires substantial investment and reform to address productivity gaps and climate vulnerabilities. The country must implement targeted policies to enhance domestic revenue mobilization, improve infrastructure, and support climate-proofing strategies to achieve sustainable development and poverty reduction.