2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Public_Employment_and_Compensation_Reform_During_Times_of_Fiscal_Consolidation_23页_481kb

报告摘要

Summary of "Public Employment and Compensation Reform During Times of Fiscal Consolidation"

Core Content

This paper analyzes public employment and compensation reform measures implemented in various economies during two distinct periods: historical episodes (1979–2009) and recent episodes (2009–present). The focus is on how these reforms have impacted the public wage bill and whether they have led to sustained reductions in government expenditure.

The public wage bill is a significant portion of government spending, typically ranging from 20–25% in advanced economies (AEs) and EMEs (emerging market economies), and up to 30% in low-income countries (LICs). It also constitutes a large share of GDP, with 10% in AEs, and 5–10% in EMEs and LICs. Public employment accounts for about 7–8% of the population in AEs and 5% in EMEs and LICs.

The paper identifies 16 historical episodes and 23 recent episodes of wage bill consolidation. It classifies these measures based on whether they targeted average wages, employment levels, or both, and whether they were short-term or structural in nature. Additionally, it assesses the level of social dialogue involved in the implementation of these reforms.

Main Findings

1. Structural Measures and Social Dialogue Lead to More Sustained Reductions

Structural measures (e.g., reforming wage bargaining models, pay for performance, outsourcing, and reducing public employment) are more effective in achieving long-term and substantial reductions in the public wage bill.
Social dialogue (e.g., consultations with unions, public communication, and consensus-building) has historically been associated with more permanent and significant reductions in the wage bill, especially in AEs.
In recent episodes, the trend continues, with structural measures still producing larger and more sustained reductions, though social dialogue has become less common.

2. Similarities Between Historical and Recent Episodes

Both historical and recent wage bill consolidation episodes are similar in many respects, particularly in the frequency of measures targeting average wages rather than employment levels.
The main difference is the reduced level of social dialogue in recent episodes, which may have affected the long-term success of these reforms.

3. The Role of Social Dialogue

Social dialogue involves consultation with unions, public communication, and consensus-building.
It is a key factor in ensuring support for reforms and reducing opposition.
In historical episodes, high social dialogue was often associated with more effective and lasting reductions in the public wage bill.

4. Non-Fiscal Impacts of Wage Bill Containment

Containing public wages can have non-fiscal effects, such as influencing private sector wages and improving competitiveness.
This is particularly relevant in countries with high wage premiums in the public sector compared to the private sector, as seen in several European countries.

5. Future Challenges

Demographic trends will likely increase the demand for public services in health and education, thus raising the pressure on public finances.
The public wage bill accounts for 30–60% of government spending in health and education, making it a critical component for future fiscal planning.

Key Information

Structural measures include reforms to wage bargaining, pay for performance, and employment restructuring.
Social dialogue is defined as efforts to build consensus and justification for wage bill measures, such as public information campaigns and union negotiations.
The average reduction in the public wage bill is similar between historical and recent episodes, around 1% of potential GDP.
Wage freezes are the most common measure in both historical and recent episodes, but their long-term impact depends on whether they are structural or one-off.
Employment measures such as attrition rules and reduced replacement rates tend to have longer time horizons for impact, which may explain the relatively smooth changes in public employment over time.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that structural reforms and social dialogue are essential for achieving sustained reductions in the public wage bill. While recent episodes show similar effectiveness to historical ones, the decline in social dialogue may reduce the long-term success of these reforms. The public wage bill remains a critical component of fiscal consolidation, especially in the context of demographic and economic pressures.

Key Tables and Figures

Table 1 shows the distribution of structural measures and social dialogue across historical episodes.
Figures 1–3 present trends in public wage bill, employment, and average wages across different economies.
Figures 4–8 compare the effectiveness of structural vs. non-structural measures, and the impact of social dialogue on wage bill and employment reductions.