战略与国际研究中心-Hemisphere-Highlights-Volume-X-Issue-1_5页_428kb

报告摘要

HEMISPHERE HIGHLIGHTS Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the 2011 presidential elections in five Latin American countries—Haiti, Peru, Guatemala, Argentina, and Nicaragua—as well as updates on U.S. policy, Cuba's economic reforms, and energy developments in the region. It also includes commentary on governance challenges and regional security issues.

2011 Presidential Elections

Haiti: March 20 (Runoff)

Candidates: Mirlande Manigat (Assembly of Progressive National Democrats) and Michel Martelly (Reponds Peyizan)
Context: Martelly won the first round by narrowly defeating the hand-picked candidate of outgoing President René Préval.
Challenges: The electoral process is disorganized, with less than a month to prepare. A cholera epidemic and lack of formal land tenure and building codes further complicate reconstruction.
Key Point: The return of former political figures like Jean-Claude Duvalier and Jean-Bertrand Aristide may not resolve governance issues and could hinder progress.

Peru: April

Candidates: Luis Castaneda (Solidaridad Nacional), Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza 2011), Ollanta Humala (Partido Nacionalista), and Alejandro Toledo (Perú Posible)
Polls: Toledo leads, while Humala is significantly behind.
APRA Withdrawal: The populist candidate Zury Ríos Montt withdrew due to internal party conflicts, potentially shifting support to Castaneda.
Uncertainty: Peru's history of unexpected political outcomes means predictions are premature.

Guatemala: September

Potential Contenders: Otto Pérez Molina (Partido Patriota), Zury Ríos Montt (Frente Republicano Guatemalaco), and Sandra Torres de Colom (Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza)
Molina: A hardliner against gangs and drug trafficking.
Ríos Montt: A conservative but legally barred candidate due to her father's past presidency.
Torres de Colom: A social program advocate, possibly running as successor to her husband, Álvaro Colom.
Constitutional Uncertainty: A new Constitutional Court may rule on whether spouses of sitting executives can run for office.

Argentina: October

Potential Contenders: Ricardo Alfonsin (Unión Cívica Radical), Elisa Carrió (Afirmaction para una Republica Igualitaria), Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (Partido Justicialista), and Mauricio Macri (Propuesta Republicana)
Political Vacuum: The death of Néstor Kirchner may create a void, potentially allowing Scioli to replace Kirchner if she steps down.
Macri's Strategy: Aims to attract independent voters and may form alliances with other parties.

Nicaragua: November

Potential Contenders: Arnoldo Alemán (Partido Liberal Constitucionalista), Fabio Gadea Mantilla (Alianza Liberal Nicaragüense), and Daniel Ortega (Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional)
Ortega's Ambition: Seeks a second consecutive term despite constitutional restrictions, which he attempted to bypass in 2009.
Opposition Challenges: Opposition candidates face fragmented support, even if former president Alemán's conviction was overturned.

U.S. Policy in the Western Hemisphere

Obama's Agenda: Promises to promote social and economic opportunity, secure a clean energy future, ensure citizen safety, and build democratic institutions.
Funding: Continued support for the Mérida Initiative ($310 million) and the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative ($124 million).
QDDR Impact: The Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review may affect development programs by integrating USAID into the State Department.
Trade Agreements: Obama aims to secure trade agreements with Colombia and Panama, but the absence of visits to these countries raises concerns.
Biofuels and Clean Energy: The U.S.-Brazil biofuels partnership is progressing, but broader adoption of biofuels in Latin America is still in early stages.

Regional Developments

Cuba

Economic Reforms: The government is licensing more self-employment (cuentapropismo) to replace state workers, aiming to boost small enterprises and tax revenue.
Support from Venezuela: Improved ICT infrastructure through a new fiber-optic cable.
Controls Remain: Despite reforms, the government will maintain strict control over Internet access and content.

Brazil

Biofuels Breakthrough: TAM Airlines successfully flew a jet using biofuel made from jatropha.
Economic Challenges: President Dilma Rousseff's anti-inflation policies face a test with flooding that may increase food prices by up to 17%.
Infrastructure Focus: Floods have prompted investment in disaster prevention and early warning systems, aligning with preparations for the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics.

Ecuador

Counternarcotics Strategy: Military support for the National Police in border regions to combat drug trafficking and FARC camps.
Interdiction Success: Seized 43 tons of cocaine in 2009 and discovered a narco-submarine in 2010.
Police Weakness: Despite military involvement, the police still need better organization and training.
Cross-Border Cooperation: Improved relations with Colombia after a 2008 joint operation.

Energy Trends

Bolivia: Natural gas reserves dropped to 8.9 Tcf, reducing its status in South America.
Argentina: Shale gas discovery in Neuquén Province may reduce reliance on imports.
Brazil: Significant gas reserves found in Espirito Santo and Maranhão basins, with plans to increase production to 4 million barrels per day by 2020.
Investment Climate: Argentina and Brazil offer more incentives for hydrocarbon exploration than Bolivia.

Contributors and Disclaimer

Contributors: Stephen Johnson (Director), Johanna Mendelson Forman (Senior Associate), Caitlin Watson (Program Coordinator), Andrés Blanco (Intern-Scholar), Patricia Kehoe (Intern-Scholar), Jennifer Brody (Intern-Scholar), Hilary Collins (Intern-Scholar)
Disclaimer: CSIS does not take specific policy positions; all views are those of the individual authors.

展开完整摘要