那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-进口弹性和进口价格的经验教训-20171129-Natixis_-Flash_Economics：The_lesson_from_import_elasticities_and_import_prices_5页_462kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document discusses the economic implications of exchange rate fluctuations and protectionist policies on import volumes and prices in OECD countries. It provides empirical data on the elasticities of imports and import prices to exchange rates, highlighting the limited effectiveness of devaluation and protectionism in reducing import volumes and the significant impact on import prices.

Main Points

1. Reaction of Imports in Volume Terms to the Real Exchange Rate

• Key Observation: OECD countries show a low elasticity of imports in volume terms to the real exchange rate.

• Data Summary:

  • United States: 0.14
  • Canada: 0.23
  • United Kingdom: 0.09
  • Sweden: 0.10
  • Germany: 0.24
  • France: 0.09
  • Spain: 0.12
  • Italy: 0.06
  • Euro zone (excl. intra-zone trade): 0.12
  • Japan: 0.14
  • Australia: 0.26

• Implication: This low sensitivity suggests that countries have significant productive specialisation and value chain segmentation, meaning that imports are largely for offshored production which is not relocalised easily.

2. Reaction of Import Prices to the Nominal Exchange Rate

• Key Observation: OECD countries show a high elasticity of import prices to the nominal exchange rate, ranging from 0.3 to 1.04.

• Data Summary:

  • United States: 0.31
  • Canada: 0.77
  • United Kingdom: 0.59
  • Sweden: 0.50
  • Germany: 0.64
  • France: 0.59
  • Spain: 1.04
  • Italy: 0.87
  • Euro zone (excl. intra-zone trade): 0.34
  • Japan: 0.61
  • Australia: 0.72

• Implication: A currency devaluation leads to a rise in import prices, which can cause inflation and reduce real wages.

Key Information

• Devaluation and Protectionism: These policies are ineffective in reducing import volumes and instead increase import prices, leading to inflationary pressures.
• Examples:
  • Japan (2014): After the depreciation of 2013, import volumes remained stable but prices increased.
  • United Kingdom (2016): Following the Brexit announcement, import volumes were unaffected but prices rose significantly.
• Conclusion: There is a strong incentive against using devaluations or protectionism due to their limited impact on import volumes and their potential to increase import prices and inflation.

Disclaimer and Legal Information

• The document is intended for professionals and qualified investors only and is strictly confidential.
• No personalized investment recommendations are provided.
• No liability is accepted for any use or interpretation of the information.
• The statements and assumptions in the document are based on public information and may be subject to change.
• The regulatory status of Natixis is outlined, including supervision by the European Central Bank (ECB) and authorization in various countries.

Regulatory Information

• France: Authorized by the ACPR, regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers.

• United Kingdom: Authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the FCA and Prudential Regulation Authority.

• Germany: Authorized by the ACPR, subject to BaFin supervision.

• Spain: Authorized by the ACPR, rated by the Bank of Spain and CNMV.

• Italy: Authorized by the ACPR, regulated by the Bank of Italy and CONSOB.

• Dubai: Authorized by the ACPR, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA).

• The document is not a financial analysis and does not meet legal requirements for independent investment research.

• No responsibility is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of the information.

• The views expressed are the personal views of the authors and may differ.

Final Note

• The document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for any investment.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• All information is subject to change without notice.