20140523-巴黎银行证券-Asia_Strategy_Weekly_13页_796kb
报告摘要
Asia FX & IR Strategy Summary - 23 May 2014
Core Content
This document outlines the key market outlook for the Asia FX & IR Strategy for the week of 23 May 2014, focusing on upcoming economic data, political developments, and market dynamics in major Asian economies. It also provides specific investment recommendations and market implications for various currencies and interest rate instruments.
Main Points
What's Crucial Next Week
- US Consumer Data: The focus will be on US consumer data, including the April durable goods orders, March FHFA home prices, May composite and services PMI, and consumer confidence index. These data points will provide insights into the US economy's health and potential rate movements.
- Asia Focus:
- India: Q1 GDP and FY 2014 deficit prints on 30 May. The fiscal deficit is expected to be worse than the 4.6% target, which may influence the new government's FY 2015 budget in July.
- Thailand: Trade, current account, business sentiment prints on 30 May. The country will auction 30Y government bonds on 28 May, amid political uncertainty. The military coup is seen as a positive for markets.
- Indonesia: Bond auction on 26 May, with expectations of weak foreign demand due to political uncertainty. The headline supply is estimated to increase, leading to higher IDR bond yields.
- Korea: Business manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys, along with industrial production data, will be key indicators of growth momentum.
- Malaysia: 10Y MG 07/24 bond auction next week, with good demand expected from onshore investors.
- Philippines: Q1 GDP and April bank lending data will be released, with a temporary slowdown in growth due to weather and weak China expansion.
- Hong Kong: April exports, imports, and trade balance data will be released.
Key Investment Recommendations
Interest Rates (IR) Strategy
| Currency | IR Strategy | Key Points |
|---|---|---|
| CNY | Bullish | Liquidity remains flush; maintain 1x5 flatteners targeting 12bps. |
| HKD | Neutral | Expect HKD-USD rates spread to widen to 40bps in 1 year. |
| INR | Flatter 1s5s and 2s5s | RBI remains hawkish; expect bond yields to be lower than onshore IRS. |
| IDR | Neutral | IDR bond yields will trend higher due to weak demand and increased supply. |
| KRW | Bullish front end | BOK may delay rate hikes; expect KRW to strengthen due to surplus and inflows. |
| MYR | Neutral | Expect short-term appreciation but medium-term bearish due to capital flight. |
| PHP | Neutral | PHP is underpinned by current account surpluses and Fitch upgrade. |
| SGD | Bullish | SGD is trading lower than the US; maintain bullish sentiment on SGD. |
| TWD | Neutral | USDTWD remains balanced; expect the 30.7-29.80 range to hold. |
| THB | Neutral | Political uncertainty limits THB weakness; expect yield curve to steepen. |
FX Strategy
| Currency | FX Strategy | Key Points |
|---|---|---|
| CNY | Bullish/range | USD/CNH spot expected to range between 6.20-6.25 in next 3 months. |
| HKD | Neutral | Spot and TT will continue range trading. |
| INR | Bullish | USDINR may sell on rallies; new government reforms expected. |
| IDR | Neutral | USDIDR may stabilize post-election; short 1Y NDF position remains. |
| KRW | Bullish | USDKRW trades in a holding pattern; expect the won to strengthen. |
| MYR | Bullish | Short-term appreciation expected; medium-term bearish due to capital flight. |
| PHP | Bullish | Peso has room to catch up; Fitch upgrade supports its value. |
| SGD | Neutral | Expect SGD to appreciate against USD in next 1-3 months. |
| TWD | Neutral | USDTWD remains balanced; expect 30.7-29.80 range to hold. |
| THB | Neutral | THB weakness limited by current account surplus; expect yield curve to steepen. |
Political Developments
- Indonesia: The presidential election is a close race. Jokowi-Kalla leads in polls, but Prabowo-Hatta's platform is gaining traction. Political uncertainty may keep foreign demand low at the bond auction.
- Thailand: A successful coup is expected to bring order and reduce political uncertainty. This may lead to a more stable market environment, though the long-end rates may sell off due to hedging activity.
- India: A landslide victory for BJP is expected, which may influence the new government's policies and fiscal stance. The upcoming FY 2014 deficit and Q1 GDP data will be key for market sentiment.
China Interbank Regulations
- Impact: New regulations aim to address LDRs, duration mismatch, and liquidity risk. Shadow banking is being restricted, and liquidity is expected to flow back into the interbank market.
- Bond Market: Bond-swap spreads are expected to widen, with a bias toward lower bond yields. On the NDIRS curve, flatteners are maintained due to potential growth disappointments.
- Short-term Impact: Growth may struggle due to reduced financing options, especially in real estate and overcapacity sectors.
- Long-term Impact: Risk premiums and financing costs are expected to decrease, and asset securitization and direct financing markets will grow.
Market Outlook
- Indonesia: Neutral cash and duration exposure on IDR bonds is recommended as the election period approaches.
- Thailand: The 2s10s THB IRS flattener is being closed, and the 1s3s steepener is maintained.
- China: Expect continued support for bonds and a possible shift in bond-swap spreads.
- Overall: The market is expected to be active in local debt capital markets, with a focus on liquidity, political stability, and economic data.
Curve Carry & Rolldowns
| Tenor | CNY | CNH | INR | IDR | KRW | MYR | PHP | THB | TWD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X3 | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.06% | 0.36% | 0.00% | 0.04% | 0.02% | -0.01% | -0.04% |
| 1X6 | -0.13% | -0.06% | 0.09% | 0.33% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.04% | -0.02% | -0.05% |
| 1X9 | -0.13% | -0.08% | 0.12% | 0.38% | -0.02% | 0.07% | 0.04% | -0.02% | -0.04% |
| 1X12 | -0.13% | -0.09% | 0.10% | 0.44% | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.07% | -0.03% | -0.03% |
| 3X6 | -0.07% | -0.03% | 0.03% | -0.04% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.01% | -0.01% |
| 3X9 | -0.07% | -0.05% | 0.06% | 0.01% | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.02% | -0.01% | 0.00% |
| 3X12 | -0.07% | -0.06% | 0.04% | 0.07% | -0.03% | 0.00% | 0.05% | -0.02% | 0.01% |
| 6X12 | 0.00% | -0.03% | 0.01% | 0.11% | -0.03% | -0.02% | 0.03% | -0.01% | 0.02% |
| Jun-Sep | -0.10% | -0.04% | 0.06% | 0.34% | -0.01% | 0.04% | 0.06% | -0.05% | 0.02% |
| Sep-Dec | -0.04% | -0.01% | 0.05% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.01% | 0.00% | -0.01% | 0.01% |
| Dec-Mar | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.05% | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.02% | 0.01% | -0.02% | 0.01% |
Summary of Key Information
- Economic Data: US consumer data and Asian GDP figures will be critical in shaping market sentiment.
- Political Events: Indonesia's presidential election, Thailand's coup, and India's new government will influence market dynamics.
- Bond Markets: Expect increased bond supply, with IDR and THB yields likely to trend higher, though foreign demand may cap the rise.
- FX Markets: CNY, INR, and PHP are seen as bullish, while THB and MYR are more neutral.
- Regulatory Impact: China's interbank regulations will restrict shadow banking, increase liquidity, and affect bond-swap spreads.
Strategy Views
- Indonesia: Maintain neutral exposure on IDR bonds.
- Thailand: Close 2s10s flattener and maintain 1s3s steepener.
- China: Continue to support bonds and maintain flatteners on the NDIRS curve.
- General Outlook: Markets are expected to remain active with a focus on liquidity, political stability, and economic data.
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