全球太阳能行业市场报告2021年上半年更新-65页_1mb

H1 2021 Solar Industry Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the global and U.S. solar industry in the first half of 2021, focusing on deployment trends, pricing dynamics, and market activity. It outlines the growth of photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) installations, the evolution of system pricing, and the impact of market policies and supply chain changes on the industry.

Global Solar Deployment

• Global PV Capacity Growth: From 2010 to 2020, global PV capacity additions grew from 17 GW to 139 GW, reaching 760 GW at the end of 2020.
• Projected Growth: Analysts expect continued growth in PV installations over the next two years, with significant increases in China, the U.S., Europe, and India.
• CSP Development: In 2020, approximately 100 MW of CSP was added in China, with an additional 1.4 GW under construction. Cumulative global CSP installations increased by nearly 6X from 2010 to 2020.
• Market Shifts: While Europe led early in PV deployment, growth has shifted to Asia. By 2020, 57% of global PV installations were in Asia, 22% in Europe, and 15% in the Americas.
• Globalization of PV: The U.S. is the second-largest PV market globally, with a significant portion of growth in 2021 attributed to delayed projects in India.

U.S. PV Deployment

• Q1 2021 Installations: The U.S. installed 4.0 GW (AC) or 4.9 GW (DC) of PV in Q1 2021, the largest Q1 total ever, with a 27% increase compared to the previous year.
• Residential PV Systems: By the end of 2020, there were approximately 2.7 million residential PV systems in the U.S.
• Community Solar Growth: The U.S. community solar market installed 826 MW (DC) in 2020, a 30% increase from the previous year, with cumulative capacity reaching 3 GW (DC).
• Market Segmentation: Q1 2021 PV installations were dominated by Texas, Florida, and California, which accounted for half of the U.S. total. 15 states installed more than 50 MW (AC) of PV.
• Energy Storage: U.S. energy storage installations increased by 252% year-over-year in Q1 2021, with residential storage surpassing 250 MWh for the first time. The Biden administration proposed a standalone tax credit for energy storage, potentially boosting its deployment.

PV System and Component Pricing

• Residential PV Prices: The median price for residential PV systems, reported by EnergySage, decreased by 4.8% from H2 2019 to H2 2020, the largest drop since 2017.
• Utility-Scale PV Pricing: In 2020, the median system price for utility-scale PV systems (from 25 regulated utilities) was $1.34/W (AC) or $0.85/W (DC), with an 8% decrease in DC Watts due to increased inverter loading ratios (ILR).
• Mono c-Si Module Prices: In Q1 2021, U.S. mono c-Si module prices were 55% above global average selling prices (ASP). The price of mono c-Si modules increased by 17% in H1 2021, driven by a 169% increase in polysilicon prices.
• ILR Impact: Increased ILR allowed developers to oversize PV arrays relative to inverters, resulting in lower DC Watts per system.

Global Manufacturing and Technology Trends

• Global PV Shipments: In 2020, global PV shipments reached approximately 132 GW, a 7% increase from 2019.
• Technology Dominance: Mono c-Si accounted for 88% of global PV shipments in 2020, up from 35% in 2015.
• Module Efficiency: In the U.S., the average efficiency of installed PV modules was 19.7% for mono c-Si, 17.5% for multi c-Si, and 17.7% for CdTe.
• Module Size and Cell Count: Module size in the commercial and residential sectors increased only modestly from 2017 to 2020. Half-cut cells became more prevalent, growing from 4% to 43% of California's distributed capacity.
• CSP Technology: CSP CAPEX declined from 2010 to 2020, despite increased energy storage. The weighted average LCOE of CSP plants fell by 68% to $0.108/kWh, and average capacity factors increased from 30% to 42%.

Market Activity and Policy Developments

• State-Level Policies: Many states are adopting net metering successor policies, with some introducing minimum bills, time-of-use rates, and lower export credit rates.
• Community Solar Expansion: Community solar projects are expanding, with 79% of cumulative capacity concentrated in the top five states. New markets like Illinois, Maine, and New Jersey are expected to see growth.
• Utility Ownership: Utilities own PV in 19 states, with 59% in Florida and 11% in Virginia. Policies in these states are encouraging direct utility ownership of solar assets.
• Supply Chain Challenges: The pandemic disrupted supply chains and traditional business practices, but the shift to virtual sales is expected to reduce costs in the future.

Key Trends and Projections

• Annual Deployment Growth: Based on EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, PV and wind deployment in the U.S. are projected to grow by 34% and 8% respectively in 2021 from 2020 levels.
• PV Pipeline: As of March 2021, the U.S. PV project pipeline included 15 GW (AC) under construction, 7 GW (AC) with regulatory approval, and 20 GW (AC) planned.
• CSP Pipeline: BNEF reports a CSP pipeline of 8.8 GW, with 1.4 GW under construction and 6.2 GW announced. Projects are primarily expected in Chile, China, and the Middle East.

Conclusion

The U.S. and global solar industries experienced significant growth in 2020 and early 2021, driven by policy support, technological advancements, and market expansion. However, rising component costs and supply chain disruptions, particularly in polysilicon, have impacted pricing trends. The continued growth of PV and CSP, along with the increasing integration of energy storage, indicates a maturing and diversifying solar market.