2014年-世界发展银行全球_Education_and_Civil_Conflict_in_Nepal_30页_312kb

Summary of "Education and Civil Conflict in Nepal"

Core Content

This paper examines the impact of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal (1996–2006) on educational outcomes, focusing on how exposure to conflict during childhood affected schooling. The study uses data from the 2001 and 2006 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) combined with detailed conflict data from INSEC to analyze the relationship between conflict intensity and education attainment.

Main Findings

• Overall Conflict Intensity and Female Education: The study finds that overall conflict intensity, measured by conflict casualties, is associated with an increase in female educational attainment, which is contrary to the general expectation that conflict negatively affects schooling.

• Abductions and Male Education: In contrast, abductions by Maoists, which often targeted school children, are associated with a decrease in educational outcomes. This suggests that abductions have a more detrimental effect on education than general conflict intensity.

• Male Education Outcomes: While male schooling also increased in areas with higher conflict intensity, the magnitude of the effect is smaller and more sensitive to specification than for females.

• Robustness of Results: The findings are consistent across different identification strategies and are not due to selective migration. This supports the causal link between the Maoist insurgency and changes in education outcomes.

• Positive and Negative Effects: The insurgency may have had positive effects on education through the police presence of Maoists, which may have reduced teacher absenteeism, and their egalitarian ideology, which may have increased the aspirations of girls and parents for their education. However, the abduction practice had a clearly negative effect on schooling, especially for children.

Key Aspects of the Conflict

• The Maoist insurgency started in 1996 and ended in 2006, initially concentrated in Western Nepal but spreading to 73 out of 75 districts.

• The primary goal of the Maoists was to establish a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution, alongside promoting land redistribution, equality for all castes, language groups, and women.

• The abduction of civilians, particularly school children, was a common tactic used by Maoists for political indoctrination, which had a negative impact on education.

• Conflict intensity varied by district, with some areas experiencing more violence than others. This variation is used to identify the causal effects of the insurgency on education.

Methodology

• The study uses two identification strategies:

  1. Variation in exposure to conflict across birth cohorts and districts in a single survey.
  2. Change in conflict intensity within districts between the 2001 and 2006 DHS surveys.

• The baseline model estimates the effect of conflict exposure on education using the following equation:

  $$
  E D U C _ {i j} ^ {t} = \delta_ {j} + \alpha_ {t} + \beta T O T C O N F _ {j} ^ {t} + \varepsilon_ {i j} ^ {t}
  $$

  where:

  • $EDUC_{ij}^{t}$ is a binary indicator for primary schooling completion or years of education completed.
  • $\delta_j$ represents district fixed effects.
  • $\alpha_t$ represents birth year dummies.
  • $TOTCONF_j^t$ is the interaction of conflict casualties with a treated cohort dummy (children aged 5–9 at the start of the conflict).

• A refined version of the model allows for variation in birth year intercepts by development region, improving the identification of the conflict effect.

• Additional regressors include:

  • Number of school disruptions and abductions by Maoists.
  • An indicator of Maoist control in the district during the conflict.

Data and Context

• The DHS surveys are representative and provide individual-level data on education and demographics.

• The INSEC conflict data includes:

  • Number of conflict-related deaths per district per month.
  • School destructions and abductions by Maoists at the district level.

• National Trends show that despite the conflict, poverty declined and human development indicators improved, suggesting that the overall effect on education was not uniformly negative.

Conclusion

The paper highlights the complex and heterogeneous effects of the Maoist insurgency on education in Nepal. While general conflict intensity may have had positive or neutral effects on female education, abductions had a clearly negative impact. The study also contributes to the broader literature by showing that the direction of the effect on education can vary by conflict type, gender, and context. The findings suggest that conflict does not always lead to worse educational outcomes, and that ideological changes and shifts in local governance may play a role in shaping these outcomes.