2025-06-16-Jefferies-澳大利亚审慎监管局私人健康保险数据-_2025财年第三季度_参与率_福利和自付费用均上升_9页_502kb

Summary Overview

• Equity Research Focus: Australian private health insurance (PHI) sector analysis.
• Key Findings: PHI participation increased to 45.3% in Q3FY25, despite slower population growth, driven by higher premium rates (average +3.73% year-over-year). Benefits rose (+8.1% for hospital treatment), with record payments to private hospitals. Out-of-pocket costs increased (+7.0% for hospital services), influenced by wage inflation and staffing shortages. Hospital utilisation grew across all categories.
• Company Performance: Medibank Private (MPL) and nib Holdings (NHF) both recommended "Hold" with price targets of A$4.80 and A$7.50. MPL preferred for larger market share and negotiating power, while NHF noted risks like regulatory reforms.
• Valuation and Risks: Price targets based on current fundamentals; risks include rising interest rates, consumer perceptions, and potential dampening of participation due to higher premiums. Upside includes better investment income and persistent participation growth.
• Recommendations: Maintain Hold ratings; up to p%-4 at an upside potential for holders.