20210813-招银国际-舜宇光学科技-02382.HK-A_bumpy_ride_to_year_end__Downgrade_to_HOLD_8页_1mb
报告摘要
Sunny Optical (2382 HK) Company Update Summary
Core Content Overview
CMB International Securities has downgraded Sunny Optical to HOLD, citing several headwinds that may affect the company's performance in the second half of 2021 (2H21E). The downgrade is based on the expectation of a slowdown in key business segments, including handset lens (HCM) and high-end lens (HLS), while maintaining a positive outlook for long-term opportunities in auto, AR/VR, and infrared lens markets.
Key Challenges in 2H21E
- Camera De-spec and Pricing Pressure: Continued camera de-spec (fewer cameras per phone) and aggressive pricing from AAC could negatively impact the HCM business.
- Reduced High-End HLS Demand: Lower demand from Sunny's clients, including the iPhone 13 cycle, cancellation of Samsung's Galaxy series, and Huawei's weak flagship sales, are expected to reduce HLS demand.
- Weaker Smartphone Sales: Impact from the spread of new COVID-19 variants could slow smartphone sales, which in turn affects demand for lenses.
- Slower Shipments from Samsung and Xiaomi: These companies are expected to ship fewer products in 2H21E due to high base in 2H20 and supply chain disruptions.
Positive Outlook and Performance Highlights
- Strong 1H21E Results: Revenue and net profit are expected to grow by 12% and 48% YoY, respectively.
- Diversified Business Growth: The company's auto, AR/VR, and infrared lens businesses are expected to grow, offering long-term potential.
- Valuation Considerations: The current valuation at 35x FY21E P/E and 29x FY22E P/E is considered fair, given the limited visibility into 2H21E performance.
Target Price and Earnings Revision
- New Target Price (TP): HK$215.2, down from the previous TP of HK$254.3.
- Earnings Revisions: CMBIS has lowered its FY21-23E EPS forecasts by 1-5% due to the mentioned headwinds.
- SOTP Valuation: The new TP is based on a weighted average P/E multiple of 28x FY22E EPS, reflecting the company's diversified business segments.
Business Segment Breakdown
| Segment | FY22E EPS (RMB) | Target P/E | % of FY22E Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Camera modules | 2.28 | 20x | 35.7% |
| Handset lenses | 3.04 | 30x | 47.6% |
| Vehicle lenses | 1.01 | 40x | 15.8% |
| Others | 0.06 | 25x | 1.0% |
| Total (RMB) | 6.39 | 28.0x |
Financial Summary
Revenue Growth
- FY19A: 46.0%
- FY20A: 0.4%
- FY21E: 14.0%
- FY22E: 14.2%
- FY23E: 15.8%
Net Profit Growth
- FY19A: 60.1%
- FY20A: 22.4%
- FY21E: 18.0%
- FY22E: 21.2%
- FY23E: 20.5%
EPS Forecast
- FY21E: 5.27 RMB
- FY22E: 6.39 RMB
- FY23E: 7.70 RMB
Valuation Metrics
- P/E (FY21E): 35.2x
- P/E (FY22E): 29.0x
- P/B (FY21E): 9.3x
- P/B (FY22E): 7.3x
Shareholding and Stock Data
- Market Cap: HK$244,817 million
- Avg 3 mths t/o: HK$1,418.87 million
- 52w High/Low: HK$259.40 / HK$112.1
- Total Issued Shares: 1,097 million
Share Performance
| Period | Absolute Return (%) | Relative Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-month | -1.2 | 2.5 |
| 3-months | 29.1 | 37.4 |
| 6-months | 0.0 | 13.8 |
Peer Valuation Comparison
| Company | Market Cap (US$ mn) | Price (LC) | TP (LC) | Downside (%) | P/E (FY21E) | P/E (FY22E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunny Optical | 31,459 | 223.2 | 215.2 | -4% | 35.2 | 29.0 |
| Q Tech | 2,035 | 13.4 | 22.0 | 64% | 13.2 | 9.6 |
| Cowell | 496 | 4.63 | NA | NA | 8.3 | 6.7 |
| Truly | 1,188 | 2.81 | NA | NA | 8.5 | 5.6 |
| Catcher | 4,910 | 179.50 | NA | NA | 14.4 | 12.7 |
| Largan | 12,937 | 2,685.00 | NA | NA | 16.6 | 14.1 |
| Lite-on | 5,150 | 61.20 | NA | NA | 10.2 | 10.8 |
| Primax | 825 | 50.90 | NA | NA | 9.3 | 8.0 |
| O-Film | 3,274 | 7.87 | NA | NA | 18.5 | 14.6 |
Analyst Notes
- Analyst: Alex Ng, Lily Yang
- Contact: Alex Ng - (852) 3900 0881, alexng@cmbi.com.hk; Lily Yang - (852) 3916 3716, lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk
- Rating Change: Downgrade to HOLD from previous rating
- Target Price Change: Trimmed from HK$254.3 to HK$215.2
- Downside: -4% from current price (HK$223.2)
CMBIS Ratings
- BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
- HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months
- SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months
- NOT RATED: Not rated by CMBIS
- OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the market
- MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the market
- UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the market
Disclosures and Analyst Certification
- The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal opinion and are not influenced by compensation.
- No trading in the stock covered within 30 days prior to report issuance.
- No trading planned within 3 business days after report issuance.
- No financial interests in the companies covered.
Auditor
- Auditor: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Conclusion
Despite a strong performance in 1H21E, Sunny Optical faces multiple headwinds in 2H21E that could drag down its revenue and net profit growth. While the company is fairly valued based on current metrics, the downgrade to HOLD reflects the near-term challenges. The long-term growth potential in auto, AR/VR, and infrared lens segments remains positive, but investors are advised to stay on the sidelines and revisit the stock when HLS demand and ASP stabilize.
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