2018年-ECB欧洲央行_eb201805_137页_1mb

Economic Bulletin Summary (Issue 5 / 2018)

Core Content

This issue of the Economic Bulletin provides an update on the economic and monetary developments in the euro area and globally in the second quarter of 2018. It outlines the current state of growth, inflation, financial conditions, and monetary policy, while also addressing key risks and uncertainties.

Main Views

• Euro Area Growth: The euro area economy is on a solid and broad-based growth path, although the pace has slowed compared to 2017. Growth is supported by employment gains, household wealth, and business investment.
• Inflation Trends: Annual HICP inflation rose to 2.0% in June 2018, mainly driven by energy and food prices. Underlying inflation is increasing, and the ECB expects it to rise further in the medium term.
• Monetary Policy: The ECB maintains that significant monetary stimulus is still necessary to support inflation convergence to its target. It decided to keep key interest rates unchanged and will continue its asset purchase programme (APP) at €30 billion per month until the end of September 2018, then reduce to €15 billion until the end of the year.
• Global Economic Environment: Global growth remains steady, but trade tensions and protectionist policies pose significant risks. Emerging market economies face tighter financial conditions, while advanced economies, including the US and Japan, remain supportive.
• Financial Developments: Euro area sovereign bond yields have declined, and corporate bond spreads remain low. The euro has appreciated against major currencies, reflecting the strong economic expansion in the region.

Key Information

1. External Environment

• Global growth momentum remained steady in Q2 2018, but trade tensions and protectionist measures have intensified.
• The US has imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, and China is expected to retaliate, with the EU and Canada also introducing retaliatory measures.
• Global trade indicators showed a loss in momentum, with merchandise imports contracting and new export orders PMI declining.
• Inflation in the OECD increased to 2.6% in May, driven by energy prices, with underlying inflation rising gradually.
• Oil prices have been stable but volatile, while non-oil commodity prices have declined, especially in food and metals.

2. Financial Developments

• Euro area sovereign bond yields fell, with the GDP-weighted ten-year yield at 1.04% in July 2018.
• Bond spreads for NFCs remained stable, while financial sector debt spreads increased slightly.
• Equity prices in the euro area corrected due to rising trade tensions, but corporate profit expectations remained strong.
• The euro appreciated in trade-weighted terms, with notable gains against the Chinese renminbi, pound sterling, and Japanese yen.
• EONIA remained around -36 basis points, with excess liquidity declining due to net asset purchases and repayments.

3. Economic Activity

• Real GDP growth in the euro area continued, though at a slower pace than 2017. Q1 2018 GDP growth was 0.4%, following five quarters of growth.
• Domestic demand and inventory changes contributed positively to GDP, while net trade had a minor dampening effect.
• Employment growth remained robust, with the unemployment rate falling to 8.4% in May 2018, the lowest since 2008.
• Private consumption was supported by employment gains and rising household wealth, with confidence at elevated levels.

4. Investment and Trade

• Investment growth eased in Q1 2018, but short-term indicators suggest continued robustness, especially in construction and housing.
• Non-construction investment declined due to lower machinery and transport equipment investment.
• Trade growth was moderate, with exports to the UK declining and imports increasing in April, but stabilising in May.

5. Monetary Policy Outlook

• The ECB confirmed that monetary accommodation is still necessary to support inflation convergence.
• The Governing Council decided to keep key interest rates unchanged and expects them to remain at current levels through the summer of 2019.
• The ECB will continue net asset purchases under the APP at €30 billion per month until September 2018, then reduce to €15 billion until the end of the year.
• Reinvestments of principal payments from maturing securities will be extended to maintain liquidity and monetary accommodation.

Boxes Highlights

• China's Housing Market: Concerns about a housing market downturn could threaten growth, but infrastructure investment has fallen while manufacturing and real estate investment have rebounded.
• Euro Area Current Account: Cyclical developments show a shift in the current account balance, with some countries experiencing improved performance.
• Growth Synchronisation: Growth across euro area countries has become more synchronised, indicating a more resilient economic expansion.
• Wages and Inflation: Rising wage growth is contributing to the pick-up in inflation.
• Mortgage Loan Origination: Mortgage loan origination in the euro area has increased, reflecting improved housing market conditions.
• Country-Specific Policy Recommendations: The European Semester includes recommendations tailored to individual euro area countries to address economic challenges.

Articles Highlights

• ECB Accountability Practices: The ECB's accountability practices have evolved during the crisis, with a focus on transparency and communication.
• Monetary Policy Transmission: The euro area's unsecured overnight interbank money market is being used to measure monetary policy fragmentation.
• Private Consumption: Private consumption is driven by employment gains, household wealth, and rising wages, with continued support from the ECB's monetary policy.

Statistics

• Chart 1: Global composite output PMI increased slightly in June, showing a four-month high.
• Chart 2: Global trade indicators showed a loss in momentum, with merchandise imports contracting and new export orders PMI declining.
• Chart 3: Euro area sovereign bond yields fell, with the ten-year yield at 1.04% in July 2018.
• Chart 4: The euro appreciated in trade-weighted terms, with gains against major currencies.
• Chart 5: Euro area real GDP and economic sentiment indicators remained strong in Q1 2018.
• Chart 6: Euro area unemployment continued to decline, reaching 8.4% in May 2018.

Conclusion

The euro area economy is on a solid growth path, supported by strong employment and consumption trends, while global trade tensions and financial market volatility remain key risks. The ECB continues its accommodative monetary policy to ensure sustained convergence of inflation to its target, with a planned reduction in asset purchases in the coming months. Overall, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with the potential for further growth and inflationary pressures in the medium term.