2018年-ECB欧洲央行_eb201801_86页_779kb

报告摘要

Economic Bulletin Summary (Issue 1 / 2018)

Core Content

This Economic Bulletin provides an overview of the euro area's economic and monetary developments as of December 2017 and into early 2018. It highlights the ongoing economic expansion, inflation trends, financial market conditions, and the ECB's monetary policy stance.

Main Views

Economic Expansion

The euro area continues to experience a broad-based and solid economic expansion, with real GDP growth of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2017, following a similar increase in the second quarter.
Private consumption remains a key driver of growth, supported by rising employment and increasing household wealth.
Business investment is strengthening due to favorable financing conditions, higher corporate profitability, and solid demand.
Housing investment has improved over recent quarters.
Export growth has remained strong, fueled by global economic expansion and increased foreign demand.

Inflation Trends

Headline HICP inflation was 1.4% in December 2017, down from 1.5% in November, mainly due to lower energy prices.
Underlying inflation (excluding energy and food) remains subdued, with no convincing signs of a sustained upward trend.
Inflation is expected to rise gradually over the medium term due to ECB's monetary policy, ongoing expansion, and increasing wage growth.
Global inflation increased in November, with OECD area inflation at 2.4%, driven by energy and food price increases. However, core inflation (excluding food and energy) remained stable at 1.9%.

Global Economic Environment

Global growth has continued to firm up, with the global composite output PMI rising to 54.4 in December 2017.
Global trade remained resilient, with a slight slowdown in the first months of the fourth quarter, but continued growth expected around the turn of the year.
US economic activity remains robust, with GDP growth of 3.2% in the third quarter and a 148,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in December.
The US tax reform (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) is expected to boost economic activity, though it may also increase fiscal imbalances.
Japan and the UK also showed signs of economic resilience, with Japan's real GDP growth at 0.6% and the UK's real GDP growth slightly accelerating to 0.4% in the third quarter.

Financial Developments

Euro area government bond yields have risen since mid-December, with the GDP-weighted ten-year yield increasing by 18 basis points to 1.04%.
Yield spreads on non-financial corporate bonds have slightly decreased, indicating improved market sentiment.
Equity prices in the euro area rose, with NFC equities increasing by 3.0% and bank equities by 5.8%.
The euro appreciated in trade-weighted terms, with a 0.7% increase in the effective exchange rate and a 4.3% rise against the US dollar.
Excess liquidity in the euro area declined by around €9 billion, as net autonomous factors grew more than the liquidity provided by the ECB's asset purchase programme.

Key Information

Monetary Policy

The Governing Council decided to keep key ECB interest rates unchanged, expecting them to remain at current levels for an extended period.
The net asset purchases (€30 billion monthly) are intended to continue until September 2018, or beyond, if necessary.
The ECB is prepared to increase the asset purchase programme in size or duration if the growth outlook deteriorates or financial conditions become inconsistent with inflation progress.
The Eurosystem will reinvest principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme for as long as needed.

Risks and Outlook

The growth outlook is assessed as broadly balanced, with upside risks from strong cyclical momentum and downside risks from global factors, especially in foreign exchange markets.
Underlying inflation is expected to rise gradually over the medium term.
Labour market improvements continue, with the unemployment rate in the euro area at 8.7% in November 2017, down from 8.8% in October and 3.3 percentage points below the post-crisis peak.
Consumer confidence improved further in the fourth quarter, reaching the highest level since January 2001.

Special Notes

Durable goods consumption has outpaced non-durable and semi-durable goods, indicating continued strength in consumer spending.
Housing affordability remains a concern, with recent house price increases.
The Central Economic Work Conference in China confirmed a focus on high-quality growth, supply-side reforms, and financial risk mitigation for 2018.

Conclusion

The euro area is in a robust economic expansion, with positive growth momentum and moderate inflation. The ECB maintains an ample degree of monetary stimulus to support inflation towards its target of below, but close to, 2%. The external environment is positive, with global growth and trade momentum continuing, though exchange rate volatility remains a concern. The financial markets show signs of improved confidence, but underlying inflation is still subdued and needs to be closely monitored.