2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Agricultural_and_Rural_Labour_Markets_in_the_EU_Candidate_Countries_of_Croatia_Former_Yugoslav_Republic_of_Macedonia_and_Turkey_18页_286kb

Summary of Agricultural and Rural Labour Markets in the EU Candidate Countries of Croatia, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey

Core Content

This paper provides an overview and comparison of agricultural and rural labour markets in Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYR of Macedonia), and Turkey, focusing on their structural differences and the factors influencing them. The analysis is based on statistical data from cross-section and time-series studies, highlighting macroeconomic, demographic, and institutional aspects.

Main Aggregates and Key Findings

3.1 Macroeconomic, Rural and Agricultural Labour Market Settings

• Population Trends: Turkey is significantly larger than Croatia and FYR of Macedonia. Croatia has seen a decline in population since the 1990s, while FYR of Macedonia and Turkey have experienced growth.
• Rural Population: All three countries have seen a decline in the rural population, with Turkey showing the fastest rate of de-ruralisation.
• Population Density: Croatia has a relatively stable population density, while FYR of Macedonia and Turkey have seen increases.
• Agricultural Employment: In 2007, the share of the total economically active population in agriculture was 5.6% in Croatia, 9.0% in FYR of Macedonia, and 34.8% in Turkey.
• Rural vs Urban: In 2009, Croatia had 42.5% rural population, FYR of Macedonia 32.6%, and Turkey 30.9%, indicating a more urbanised structure in the latter two.

3.2 Role of Agricultural Output in the Economy

• Agricultural Value Added to GDP: The share of agriculture in GDP has declined over time, consistent with economic development trends. In 2007, it was 6.1% in Croatia, 11.0% in FYR of Macedonia, and 10.8% in Turkey.
• Stabilisation During Recession: The role of agriculture in the economy has stabilised or slightly increased during the recent European economic recession, suggesting a social-buffer function against unemployment and worsening living conditions.

3.3 Employment in Agriculture

• Employment Trends: The share of employment in agriculture has generally declined in all three countries.
• Gender Disparities: In Croatia, female employment in agriculture is slightly higher than male. In FYR of Macedonia, there has been a shift from a higher share of female to male employment in agriculture. In Turkey, the share of female employment in agriculture has declined significantly.
• Child Employment: Data on child employment in agriculture is only available for Turkey, showing a substantial decline from 83.4% in 1999 to 11.2% in 2006 for females, and 21.4% for males.

3.4 Labour Productivity in Agriculture

• Productivity Growth: Agricultural labour productivity has increased in all three countries, measured by value added per worker in constant 2000 US$.
• Productivity Differences: In 2008, Croatian productivity was more than three times that of FYR of Macedonia and around five times that of Turkey.

3.5 Rural and Urban Population

• Urbanisation Trends: The transition from rural to urban population occurred in the mid-1970s for FYR of Macedonia, early 1980s for Croatia, and mid-1980s for Turkey.
• Urban Growth: Major cities in Turkey, such as Istanbul and Ankara, have seen rapid growth, while FYR of Macedonia's urban growth has been driven by its capital, Skopje.
• Rural Development: Croatia has experienced more balanced development between rural and urban areas, which has helped retain younger and more educated populations in rural regions.

3.6 Literacy and Educational Attainments

• Literacy Rates: Croatia has nearly universal literacy among youth and adults, while FYR of Macedonia and Turkey have slightly lower rates.
• Tertiary Education: School enrolment in tertiary education has almost doubled in all three countries over the last decade, with Croatia leading the trend. Educational attainment is linked to improved flexibility and mobility in the rural and agricultural sectors.

3.7 Unemployment

• Unemployment Rates: Croatia has seen a significant reduction in unemployment, while FYR of Macedonia and Turkey have higher rates.
• Gender Differences: Unemployment rates are generally similar between male and female populations in Croatia and Turkey, but higher for females in FYR of Macedonia.
• Rural Unemployment: Unemployment is particularly high in rural areas due to limited employment opportunities.

3.8 Rural Poverty and Living Conditions

• Poverty Rates: Over a quarter of the population in all three countries lives below the national poverty line. In 2008, Croatia had a 25.5% at-risk-of-poverty rate, while Turkey had 26.1%.
• Rural Poverty: Both FYR of Macedonia and Turkey have higher rural poverty rates than urban areas, indicating the need for non-agricultural development to improve living conditions.

Determinants of Rural Labour Market Developments

• Macroeconomic Features: Economic growth and structural changes have influenced the decline in agricultural employment and the rise in urbanisation.
• Labour Legislation and Contracts: The legal framework and employment contracts affect the structure and dynamics of the agricultural and rural labour markets.
• Wage Setting and Unions: Wage setting mechanisms and the role of unions are important in shaping the labour market outcomes.
• Taxation and Social Benefits: These factors influence the attractiveness of agricultural and rural employment.
• Education and Training: Higher education levels improve flexibility and mobility, and are associated with reduced rural unemployment and increased migration opportunities.
• Labour Mobility: Migration, both within and outside the countries, plays a crucial role in shaping the rural and agricultural labour markets.
• Living Conditions: Poor living conditions and lack of non-agricultural opportunities in rural areas contribute to the out-migration of the younger and more educated population.

Policy Implications

• The decline in the agricultural labour force and rural population is expected to continue, but with varying rates across the three countries.
• Enhancing non-agricultural employment opportunities in rural areas is essential for improving living conditions and reducing poverty.
• Investment in education and training is crucial for increasing the competitiveness and attractiveness of rural and agricultural sectors.
• Strengthening labour market institutions, including legal frameworks, wage policies, and social benefits, can support the development of rural and agricultural sectors.
• Addressing gender disparities in employment and productivity is important for achieving balanced rural development.