2021-12-14-牛津经济研究院-Global_Cities_The_rise_of_urban_economic_powerhouses_7页_436kb

December 2021 Global Cities Outlook Summary

1. Introduction:

   • The top 900 global cities produce ~60% of world economic activity and will grow, hosting ~500 million more people by 2040. Significant growth disparities between cities are expected, altering the global urban economic landscape.

2. Pandemic Impact:

   • Cities experienced the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. While all faced challenges, recovery was generally robust, allowing many cities to exceed pre-pandemic GDP levels or returning to them.
   • Macao experienced severe contraction (GDP halved) due to its reliance on tourism. The pandemic's long-term impact on most cities' growth potential and overall rankings is not expected to be significant.
   • Urbanization in Africa is expected to be rapid, contrasting with falling populations and labor pressures expected in many European and Chinese cities, alongside increased urbanization in Asia.

3. Rise of Urban Economic Powerhouses:

   • The global "urban economic powerhouses" (GDP > $500B) are shifting decisively towards Asia.
   • Currently, there are 16 powerhouses (NYC, Tokyo, LA leading; London, Paris close behind). By 2040, an additional 47 cities, mostly in Asia (e.g., Shanghai, Beijing), will reach this status, making China (15) likely comparable to the US (19).
   • Growth in the key finance and business services sector will be significant, potentially surpassing NYC and LA in employment terms by 2040. Cities like Mumbai, Manila, and Shenzhen are projected to become global leaders in this sector.
   • Rapidly growing cities (e.g., Dhaka, Bengaluru, Chengdu, Jakarta) are often focused on technology or lower-value manufacturing. However, most significant growth will occur in finance and business services for all cities.

4. Population Dynamics:

   • By 2040, the 900 cities' population will exceed 3 billion (up 590 million from current levels).
   • Growth is non-uniform: Shrinking populations are expected in parts of Europe and China; Africa will add >200 million urban residents.
   • Megacities: There are currently 41 megacities (+23 by 2040). Africa will see many more megacities emerge. While changing fast, African megacities may not reach the scale of Asian ones. Dhaka faces challenges related to population growth, climate change, and urban development. Fastest population growth rate expected (Kinshasa).