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Analysis Summary of "Small and Beautiful" Belt and Road Initiative: China's Energy Financing

Executive Summary

This report analyzes China's global energy financing through the China Development Finance Institutions (CDFIs), namely the Chinese National Development Bank (CDB) and the Export-Import Bank of China (EXIM Bank), based on data from 2000 to 2023. The analysis shows that China provided $209 billion in energy loans to 68 countries over this period, focusing on infrastructure projects. More recently, China has shifted towards smaller renewable projects, aligning with climate goals and cautious post-COVID re-engagement, despite an overall decline in energy financing due to global events and policy changes.

Key Findings

• Historical Financing: From 2000 to 2023, energy loans totaled $209 billion, with oil and gas dominating (50%), followed by hydropower (18%) and coal (10%). Renewable sources like solar and wind accounted for less than 1%.

• Regional Distribution: Asia accounted for 31% ($65 billion), Africa 26% ($55 billion), Latin America and the Caribbean 24% ($51 billion), and Europe 18% ($38 billion). High concentrations were in countries like Russia, Brazil, and Angola.

• Post-COVID Trends: China's energy lending peaked before the pandemic and declined sharply since 2020, though it modestly increased in 2023. 2023 saw a shift to smaller projects, with an average loan size of $16.7 million—down from $57.4 million previously—and focus on renewable energy for climate alignment.

• Climate and Policy Shifts: China stopped new coal financing in 2021 and has not funded overseas fossil fuel projects since 2023. This aligns with China's carbon neutrality pledge and commitments at forums like FOCAC, boosting green finance in Africa and beyond.

Conclusion

China's cautious restoration of energy financing highlights a strategic pivot to green energy, supporting global climate efforts and addressing energy deficits in partner countries. Future growth in green financing, particularly in Africa under initiatives like FOCAC, may enhance China's contribution to global energy transitions.