20150529-杰富瑞-Today_At_A_Glance_14页_361kb_361kb

Asia Research Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of research insights and investment recommendations for various companies across Asia, focusing on performance, market trends, and future outlooks. It includes analyses from different sectors such as telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, banking, energy, and others, with an emphasis on earnings forecasts, price targets, and rating updates.

Main Points and Key Insights

Internet & Search Ads

• Key Takeaway: Mobile app stores are becoming a more significant advertising channel, especially in China. Baidu, as the largest app distribution platform, is expected to benefit from this trend.
• China Telecom Corp Ltd.:
  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: HK$6.00 (CHA: $77.42)
  • 4G network expansion and data tariff decline are expected to drive usage.
  • Network quality improvements and tower injection are expected to be completed by end-August.
  • Launch of 6 modes and low-end 4G handsets in FY15 is anticipated.
• Vipshop Holdings Limited:
  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: $35.00
  • Benefiting from increased scale economy and better ad budget allocation.
  • Management has negotiated better payment rates with Alipay and Tenpay.
• Tian Ge Interactive Holdings:
  • Rating: HOLD
  • Price Target: ▲HK$5.30 to HK$6.30
  • 1Q15 revenue and earnings beat consensus.
  • Mobile user mix increased, leading to lower blended ARPU.
  • Revised FY15 adj. net profit estimate by 1.6%.
• JinkoSolar:
  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: ▼$35.30 to $34.50
  • 1Q15 shipment beat guidance, but gross margin contracted.
  • Shares are attractively valued at 7x 2016 P/E.
  • Maintained Buy rating.

Pharmaceuticals

• Key Takeaway: The sector is reviewed with updates on earnings models and target prices.
• Chugai:
  • Rating: H
  • Price Target: ¥3,200 to ¥3,500
  • 1Q15 results and company visits updated earnings models.
• Daiichi Sankyo:
  • Rating: H
  • Price Target: ¥1,700 to ¥2,100
• Dainippon Sumitomo:
  • Rating: U
  • Price Target: ¥900 to ¥1,000
• Shionogi & Co.:
  • Rating: B
  • Price Target: ¥5,000 to ¥6,000
  • Promoted as top pick due to catalysts and upside to target price.
• Santen Pharmaceutical:
  • Rating: B
  • Price Target: ¥2,000 to ¥2,300
  • Recommended for leading position in specialty space.
• Ono Pharmaceuticals:
  • Rating: H
  • Price Target: ¥4,000 to ¥3,700
• MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings:
  • Rating: HOLD
  • Price Target: ¥3,600
  • Revised core profit target to ¥200bn.
  • Trading at 14.9x PER and 0.85x PBR.
• Nomura Holdings:
  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: ¥880
  • Investor Day highlights focus on Wholesale strategy.
• Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd.:
  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: ¥1,050
  • Nippon Steel raises H-beam prices by +¥3k/t.
  • Market leader with high ASP, potential for margin expansion.
• SUMCO:
  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: ¥2,900
  • Wafer supply-demand remains strong.
  • 300mm wafer demand up 13% yoy, utilization rate at 95-96%.
• ASKUL Corp.:
  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: ¥3,750
  • May sales growth of +15.0% yoy, driven by B2B and LOHACO.
• Nabtesco Corp.:
  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: ¥4,300
  • Announced share buyback program and cancellation of treasury shares.
• Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings:
  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: ▼¥1,150 to ¥1,080
  • Revised down near-term earnings.
  • Projects in pipeline include joint ventures, asset management, and internet banking.
• ONGC:
  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: INR460.00
  • Disappointing 4QFY15 results due to higher royalty expenses and exploration write-offs.
  • Expectation of subsidy sharing resolution to improve earnings.
• United Spirits:
  • Rating: UNDERPERFORM
  • Price Target: INR2,464.00
  • Operating performance in FY15 was worse than YTD trends.
  • No positives identified; maintain Underperform.

Banks

• Key Takeaway: Banks are in a "late cycle" phase, with some positive developments but overall cautious outlook.
• Malayan Banking Berhad:
  • Rating: Buy
  • Price Target: MYR10.30
  • 1Q15 net profit increased by 6% yoy.
  • Valuations are attractive at 11.8x FY15F PE and 1.3x PB.
• Mah Sing Group Berhad:
  • Rating: Buy
  • Price Target: MYR3.00
  • 1Q15 net profit improved by 17% qoq and 18% yoy.
  • Valuations look attractive at 10.7x FY15F PE and 0.5x PBV.
• Malaysian Bulk Carriers:
  • Rating: Sell
  • Price Target: MYR1.00
  • 1Q15 recorded a net loss due to soft dry bulk rates.
  • Recovery in China operation remains uncertain.
• Parkson Holdings:
  • Rating: Sell
  • Price Target: MYR2.13
  • Despite strong SSSG in Malaysia, earnings in 3QFY15 declined by 18% yoy.
  • Turnaround not in sight; maintain Sell.

Other Sectors

• Sonic Healthcare:
  • Rating: Positive
  • Price Target: ▲AUD19.96 to AUD22.50
  • FY15 DOWNGRADED 4-5% for FX & ACC headwinds.
  • Potential upside if rents are pegged to medical center head leases.
• SFA:
  • Rating: Hold
  • Price Target: KRW46,000
  • Expected earnings to improve in 2Q15, but client shift could affect AMOLED equipment demand.
• Fubon: Electronics
  • Rating: Add
  • Price Target: NT$240
  • Force Touch is a key theme in 2016.
  • Pressure sensors will expand to non-Apple products, creating new market opportunities.
  • TPK and GIS are expected to benefit from Force Touch on iPhone 6s.
  • CTBC FHC (2891 TT) discusses three China-related deals, including acquisitions and joint ventures.

Summary of Ratings and Price Targets

Key Themes and Trends

• Mobile App Stores: Increasing importance in advertising, with Baidu and Vipshop benefiting.
• Network Quality and Expansion: China Telecom is expected to accelerate 4G net adds and improve network quality.
• Pharmaceuticals: Sector update with focus on earnings models and target prices, with Shionogi and Astellas highlighted.
• Banks: "Late cycle" play with Nomura and Tokai Tokyo as top picks, while others face challenges.
• Energy: BPCL and HPCL reported strong 4Q results, with ONGC facing some disappointment but still a Buy.
• Electronics: Force Touch is a major theme for 2016, with TPK and GIS as key beneficiaries.
• Shipping: Malaysian Bulk Carriers and Parkson are recommended to be sold due to soft market conditions.
• Valuation and Earnings: Several companies are valued attractively, with some showing strong growth potential.