2014-10-28-皮尤-Cyber_Attacks_Likely_to_Increase_63页_810kb

NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD
FOR RELEASE OCTOBER 29, 2014

Experts believe nations, rogue groups, and malicious individuals will step up their assaults on communications networks, targeting institutions, financial services agencies, utilities, and consumers. Although most expect more attacks, many predict effective countermeasures will contain damage. Some view the situation as a "Cold War" dynamic, where mutual assured disruption limits severe harm. Some believe the threat is exaggerated.

Summary

The Internet has integrated into economic and national life, making it a prime target for frequent and threatening attacks. Since 2004, significant events like the Stuxnet worm attack and alleged Chinese hacking have highlighted the growing cyber threat. In 2014, 1,642 experts were surveyed on whether a major cyber attack causing widespread harm by 2025 would occur. About 61% expected such an attack, citing vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure like power grids, finance, and transportation. Key themes include:

• Yes Responses: Internet-connected systems are inviting targets; security is often overlooked in design; major attacks like Stuxnet have already occurred; businesses and individuals face increasing risks.
• No Responses: Progress in security fixes and distributed networks may thwart major attacks; deterrence through retaliation limits aggression; hype over the threat is overstated.

The threat persists due to underinvestment in security, growing reliance on interconnected systems, and the arms race between attackers and defenders. Cybersecurity measures are evolving, but significant vulnerabilities remain.