2024-10-27-兰德-人道主义领域的新兴技术-技术深潜系列（英）_64页_851kb

Emerging technologies, including advanced manufacturing systems, early warning systems, camp monitoring systems, coordination platforms, and privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs), present significant opportunities for the humanitarian sector up to 2030, though challenges remain. These technologies are analyzed across three horizons: Horizon 1 (present), addressing current applications like 3D printing for prosthetics and mobile EWS; Horizon 2 (transitory period), exploring medium-term trends such as IoT integration and open-source hardware; and Horizon 3 (future), identifying long-term possibilities like digital twins and federated analytics. Key barriers include financial constraints, regulatory fragmentation, data security risks, privacy concerns, and ethical issues such as algorithmic bias and digital colonialism. Opportunities involve enhancing disaster preparedness, improving camp management, fostering local resilience, and advancing data sovereignty. Humanitarian actors must navigate trade-offs between efficiency and respect for principles like independence, neutrality, and civilian protection. Recommendations emphasize community-centered design, robust governance frameworks for data, strategic partnerships for scaling, and addressing systemic barriers to ensure equitable and ethical deployment.