2004-11-10-皮尤-Voters_Liked_Campaign_2004,_But_Too_Much_Mud-Slinging_29页_90kb
报告摘要
2004 Presidential Election Voter Survey Summary
Overall Campaign Perception
- Voter Satisfaction is High: Overall satisfaction is notably high. 86% report learning enough about candidates to make an informed choice, and 66% are satisfied with the choice of candidates.
- Record High Satisfaction: The percentage of very satisfied voters (63%) is the highest since 1988 surveys began.
- Increased Negative Perception: While overall informativeness remains high (86% learned enough), significantly more voters (72%) perceive this campaign as excessively negative or full of mud-slinging compared to past elections (up from 34% in 2000).
Campaign Effects and Reactions
- Information vs. Negative Ads: Voters generally found the campaign informative, but they disliked the negativity. This frustration is shared similarly by supporters of both Kerry (74%) and Bush (70%).
- Republican Optimism, Democrat Disappointment: Bush's victory is met with relief, reassurance, and feelings of safety (around 90%) by most Republican voters. Democratic voters express more negative reactions: disappointment (88%), worry (69%), anger (35%), and depression.
- Intense Reactions Based on Ideology: Conservative Bush supporters show stronger positive reactions, while liberal Kerry supporters show stronger negative reactions.
Voter Satisfaction by Ideology and Choice
- Bush/Zogby Rating Increases: Voters approved of President Bush's campaign higher than did pollsters after re-elections (Clinton 1996). Bush voters rated the campaign more favorably than Kerry or his supporters did. Liberal Republican voters also gave relatively high marks to the campaign/candidate.
- Kerry/Perot Rating Low: Voters' ratings of John Kerry's campaign are similar to their ratings of the Democratic Party, with relatively low approval. Swing voters (independents) gave Kerry the lowest rating among the candidates or campaign groups.
- Declining Democratic Support: Voter rating of the Democratic Party dropped significantly (37% "A" or "B") compared to 1996 when it was 40%.
Moral Values Issue
- Bush Voters Prioritize Moral Values: Moral values were cited most frequently by Bush voters as an important issue, especially within fixed list questions.
- Kerry Voters Prioritize Iraq/Economy: Compared to Bush voters, Kerry voters placed higher importance on the war in Iraq and economy/jobs.
- Fragmented Understanding of Moral Values: The definition varies greatly. Many Bush voters associated it directly with specific social issues (abortion, gay marriage) or the candidates' personal morality. Others linked it more generally to religion or personal integrity. For those not presented with fixed lists, non-specific policy/social issues, personal candidate qualities, and general instinct were common responses.
Voter Contact and Effort
- Widespread Contact: 64% of voters reported being contacted by campaigns/groups via phone, in-person, or email about the election.
- Internet Usage Growth: Online news use surged. In 2004, 21% were "heavies" using online campaigns 2-3 times daily, nearly double that in 2000.
Campaign Impact
- Most Voters Believe Second Term Successful: 61% predict a successful second term for Bush, slightly down from Clinton's prediction 4 years prior.
- Mixed Opposition Views: Democrats largely preferred working with Republicans to achieve results rather than standing principle (52% vs 42%).
- Media Perception Shifted: While still seeing press coverage as largely fair, the percentage seeing it as "unfair" increased for both Bush/Republican (40% vs 30%) and Kerry/Democratic (31% vs 24%).
- Mixed Election Day Experience: Many voted early (20%), but for those voting on Election Day, long lines or waiting were reported by a small minority (8% waited over an hour).
Key Findings Summary
- Voters valued informativeness (86%) and expressed record satisfaction with candidate choices (63% very satisfied), but simultaneously saw the campaign as much more negative (72%) than before.
- Bush voters consistently rated the campaign itself and President Bush more favorably than Kerry voters rated the campaign or Kerry. Democratic voters were predominantly unhappy with Bush's win, with intense feelings among liberals.
- Moral values were a top-tier issue primarily highlighted by Bush voters, though interpretations varied. The war in Iraq and economy were top concerns for Kerry voters.
- Campaigning reached a large majority of eligible voters via various channels (64% contacted). The Internet's influence as an election news source increased dramatically.
- Republicans maintained optimism about Bush's re-election despite challenging conditions.
- Voters showed high trust in the accuracy of their own votes, but less confidence in the overall national vote count accuracy.
- Campaign negativity was the most consistently cited factor for unfavorable presidential voting.
These points provide an overview but do not replace detailed analysis of the full survey results.
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