2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Japan_out_of_the_Lost_Decade_Divine_Wind_or_Firms’_Effort__40页_1mb

Summary of "Japan out of the Lost Decade: Divine Wind or Firms' Effort?"

Core Content

This working paper investigates the reasons behind Japan's export surge in the 2000s, which played a crucial role in exiting the so-called "lost decade" of the 1990s. The paper examines whether the growth in exports was driven by exogenous demand factors, referred to as the "divine wind," or by internal supply-side improvements, particularly productivity gains from long-term restructuring efforts.

The main objective is to quantify the relative importance of demand and supply factors in the growth of Japanese exports. The study uses firm-level panel data from listed companies in three key industries: general machinery, electrical machinery, and transportation equipment. The sample period spans from 1995 to 2007, capturing both the stagnation and recovery phases.

Main Views and Arguments

• Divine Wind Hypothesis: Exogenous external demand, especially from China and Asian Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs), is believed to have driven the export surge in the 2000s. Data shows a significant increase in export growth to these regions, with the average growth rate to China doubling from 12.5% in 1991-2001 to 22.7% in 2001-2007.

• Firms' Efforts Hypothesis: Productivity gains, resulting from firm-level restructuring efforts during the lost decade, are argued to have been a major driver of export growth. The paper suggests that internal supply-side improvements, such as increases in total factor productivity (TFP), played a more significant role than external demand.

Key Findings

• The export function is estimated using panel data, and the results show that TFP explains nearly 50% of the variation in exports, while external income growth explains less than 20%.

• Price-cost margin is a significant determinant of exports, with a positive effect across all industries and specifications. This indicates that firms with higher profitability are more likely to export.

• Firm size, measured by total assets, also has a positive effect on exports, suggesting that larger firms have an advantage due to lower trading costs.

• Lending attitude of financial institutions is positively correlated with exports. A more accommodative lending attitude is associated with increased export activity, consistent with the findings of Amiti and Weinstein (2011).

Methodology

• The study uses a partial equilibrium model inspired by Melitz (2003) and Melitz and Ottaviano (2008), which incorporates firm heterogeneity.

• Two models are estimated: one with and one without the bank health variable (measured by the lending attitude diffusion index, DI).

• Instrumental variable (IV) estimation is used to address endogeneity in the price-cost margin variable. Valid instruments include the log of TFP and the lagged debt-asset ratio.

• The Hausman test is applied to determine whether a fixed-effect or random-effects model is more appropriate.

Estimation Results

• The coefficient estimates for the price-cost margin are significantly larger in IV estimation compared to simple panel estimation, indicating the presence of measurement errors in the simple method.

• The income elasticity of exports ranges from 0.580 (general machinery) to 1.150 (transportation equipment), showing that world income growth had a positive but relatively modest effect on exports.

• The elasticity of exports with respect to price-cost margin ranges from 0.438 (general machinery) to 1.494 (transportation equipment), highlighting its substantial impact.

• The effect of lending attitude is positive across all industries, suggesting that improved access to external finance enhances export performance.

Implications

• The findings support the view that firms' restructuring efforts and productivity gains were more important than exogenous demand in explaining the export surge in the 2000s.

• This implies that the internal capacity and efficiency of Japanese firms were key to their recovery from the lost decade.

• The role of external finance should not be ignored, as it contributes positively to export activities, especially in the context of financial crises.

Key Variables and Data

• Total Factor Productivity (TFP): Constructed using firm-level data on output and input costs, with adjustments for industry averages and time trends.

• Price-Cost Margin: Calculated as the ratio of output value to total cost, including labor, material, and capital costs.

• Real Exports: Derived by deflating export values using the export price index, capturing the actual volume of exports.

• The data source is the unconsolidated financial statements of firms listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, provided by Nikken Inc. (NEEDS database).

Conclusion

The paper concludes that the export surge in the 2000s was primarily driven by productivity gains and firm-level restructuring efforts, rather than exogenous demand. This has important implications for understanding Japan's economic recovery and for policy design aimed at enhancing export performance through internal efficiency improvements.