2025-06-11-Jefferies-阿乐芬德斯（ALLFG）_观看视频Allfunds_-金融领域引人注目的新变革故事_7页_265kb

Equity Research -- Allfunds Group Plc (ALLFG NA)

Flash Note Summary

• Allfunds is positioned as a key beneficiary of pro-European Savings & Investment Union initiatives.
• Provides dispelling market concerns around its business model.
• Incoming CEO Annabel Spring is expected to build upon a strong platform.
• Jefferies BUY rating with a €8.50 price target, representing a +40% upside from current price (€6.07).
• Allfunds ranks as one of the "most compelling change stories" in financials.

Key Highlights

• Announced strong Q1FY25 results and positioned well for a pro-EU policy pivot.
• Achieved record migration volumes and EBITDA beat in FY24.
• Initiated coverage with a €8.50 PT (June 12, 2025).
• Management has a strong MoM improvement story.

Company Overview

• Operates a B2B platform connecting fund houses and distributors, providing an open-architecture marketplace.
• Supplements its core operations with Allfunds Connect data and analytics service.
• Market capitalization stands at €3.8B ($4.4B).

Investment Risks

• Falling asset levels could reduce Asset Under Administration (AUA) and revenue.
• Fee pressures from passive investment growth.
• Declining revenue yield.
• Loss of key clients (fund houses/distributors).
• Industry consolidation leading to competitive advantages for rivals.
• IT failures and cyberattacks.
• Failure to meet key targets (MT targets: AUA growth, EBITDA margin growth).

Valuation

• Primary method: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis with explicit years followed by a fade period.
• Cost of equity (CoE): 8% (consistent with European coverage), terminal growth rate: 3%.
• Cross-checks via peer group valuation multiples; comparisons to companies in investment platform, exchanges, index services, and software sectors.

Price Target & Rating History

• Current Rating: BUY
• Current Price Target: €8.50 (+40% upside)
• Current Market Price: €6.07 (Note: Prior day closing unless stated)
• 52W High/Low: €6.18 - €4.23
• Rating history includes multiple BUY ratings with progressively lowering targets (e.g., €14.00, €13.00 reduced to €8.50).

Analyst Certifications

• (Leads & Contributors): Tom Mills, Laura Gris Trillo, Julian Roberts, Fangfei Li.