2008年-世界发展银行全球_Nicaragua_-_Poverty_Assessment___Volume_3_Background_Paper_170页_962kb

Nicaragua Poverty Assessment Summary

Core Content

This document is a Background Paper of the Nicaragua Poverty Assessment (Volume III), published by the World Bank on May 30, 2008. It presents an incidence analysis of public social spending and the Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) in Nicaragua, based on data from the 2005 Living Standards Measurement Survey (EMNV). The main goal is to assess the distributional impact of social programs and determine whether they benefit the poorest segments of the population.

Main Points

• Public Social Expenditure (SPE): Nicaragua's central government allocated C$9.107 billion in 2005 to public social programs, which accounted for 43% of total central government spending and 52% of total expenditure excluding public debt service.
• Social Expenditure Structure: The largest portion of SPE went to education (42.4%), followed by health (31%), housing (16.5%), social assistance (9.1%), and sports and culture (1.1%).
• Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) Expenditure: PRS spending totaled C$7.576 billion (11.9% of GDP), with education (33.5%), health (28.6%), social assistance (16%), housing (3.9%), and rural development (18%) being the main areas.
• Consumption Distribution: The Gini coefficient for per capita family consumption in 2005 was 0.403, indicating a relatively high level of inequality on a global scale but moderate within Latin America.
• Poverty Levels: According to the EMNV, 14.9% of Nicaraguans lived in extreme poverty, 31.3% in non-extreme poverty, and 53.8% were non-poor.
• Poverty and Geography: Rural areas have a higher poverty rate (67.9%) compared to urban areas (70.9% non-poor). The Central and Atlantic regions have the lowest consumption levels, while the Managua region is the most affluent.
• Indigenous Population: Indigenous people face worse socioeconomic conditions, with an average income of 79% of the national average, and 23.8% in extreme poverty compared to 14.2% among the rest of the population.

Key Findings

• Social Expenditure Incidence: Public social spending in Nicaragua is not pro-poor; it benefits all socioeconomic strata uniformly. This is due to a compensatory balance between programs that target the poor (e.g., primary education) and those that benefit higher income groups (e.g., universities).
• PRS Spending: In contrast to general SPE, PRS spending has a clear pro-poor bias, although there is room for further focalization to enhance its impact on the poor.
• Methodology: The study uses benefit incidence analysis, which involves:
  • Defining a well-being variable (per capita consumption).
  • Identifying program beneficiaries.
  • Assigning benefits based on the assumption that the value of public services equals their average cost.
• Limitations: The methodology does not account for:
  • Externalities (benefits to non-participants).
  • Inefficiencies, corruption, or behavioral changes in response to public policy.
  • Regional cost differences in service provision (e.g., higher costs in rural schools).

Methodological Framework

1. Definition of Well-being Variable

• Per capita consumption is used to measure individual well-being.
• The population is grouped into quintiles or poverty levels (extreme, non-extreme, non-poor).

2. Identifying Beneficiaries

• The study assumes that direct users or participants are the beneficiaries of a program.
• It ignores indirect benefits (e.g., externalities) and benefits to production factors.

3. Assigning Benefits

• Benefits are assigned based on the distribution of program beneficiaries.
• It is assumed that benefits equal the cost of the service, which may not reflect actual value to the user.
• Quality of services is not assessed due to limitations in survey data.

Distributional Impact

• Concentration Curves: These curves show how public spending is distributed across the population.
  • A 45-degree line indicates uniform distribution.
  • A curve above the diagonal indicates pro-poor spending.
  • A curve above the Lorenz curve indicates progressive spending.
• Progressivity Index: The Kakwani index measures the progressivity of public spending. It is calculated as the Gini coefficient minus the concentration index.
• Programs with Pro-rich and Progressive Incidence: Some programs in Nicaragua have pro-rich incidence (benefits increase with higher consumption) but are progressive (benefits as a proportion of consumption drop with higher consumption). This distinction is crucial for understanding the overall impact of social spending.

Conclusion

• The distribution of public social spending in Nicaragua is not pro-poor, as the benefits are spread evenly across all strata.
• The Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) spending is pro-poor, but there is potential for improving its focalization.
• The study highlights the importance of targeting social programs more effectively to reduce inequality and increase poverty reduction.
• The EMNV is a key data source, offering detailed insights into the socioeconomic situation and program participation of Nicaraguan households.

Key Tables and Graphs

• Table 3.1: Functional structure of SPE in 2005.
• Table 3.2: Classification of public social expenditure used in the study.
• Table 3.3: Classification of PRS expenditure.
• Table 3.4: Summary of SPE and PRS expenditure structure.
• Table 3.5: Average per capita consumption by quintile.
• Table 3.6: Distribution of consumption from the EMNV.
• Table 3.7: Population distribution by poverty level.
• Graph 3.1: Evolution of SPE as a percentage of GDP from 1991 to 2005.
• Graph 3.2: Concentration and Lorenz curves for SPE and PRS.

Final Comments

• The study emphasizes the importance of incidence analysis in evaluating the equity and efficiency of public spending.
• It suggests that while current SPE is not pro-poor, PRS spending is more equitably distributed and has the potential for improvement.
• The methodology used has limitations, particularly in ignoring externalities and inefficiencies, which may affect the accuracy of incidence estimates.