2025-05-15-Bernstein-Harmonic_Drive_Systems_Inc（6324）_哈默纳科周期正在触底_17页_3mb

Report: Harmonic Drive Systems Inc (HDSI) - 6324.JP

Rating: Outperform

• Price Target (JN): JPY 5,600
• Upside Potential (Based on TP): 46%
• Current Close: JPY 3,835 - Trading 52-week range: JPY 1,763 - JPY 5,350

Analysis Summary

• Recent Performance & Guidance: Harmonic Drive Systems Inc (HDSI) reported FY3/2025 Q4 results, largely meeting prior late-April guidance. The company confirms a domestic order bottom has been reached and believes order recovery from customers (optimizing inventory) will be gradual. HDSI provided conservative FY3/2026 H1 guidance due to a challenging environment, which Bernstein interprets as a delay rather than cancellation of orders. New orders for FY3/2025 Q4 rose 15% YoY and 12% QoQ, indicating a recovering trend.

• Order Drivers: A Chinese robot player and projects from new customers are driving up robot orders. FANUC confirms near completion of its robotics inventory adjustments by end-December 2024, expected to positively impact HDSI.

• Revenue & Margins: Bernstein's analysis projects revenues to increase significantly from JPY 55.6bn in FY24A to over JPY 79.4bn by FY26E (CAGR 19.4%). Gross margins are forecasted to rise from 26.7% in FY24A, importantly, operating/effective tax rate is projected to fall.

• Long-term Outlook: A core thesis remains focused on the potential for HDSIs business from the expanding humanoid robot market. While small now, Bernstein forecasts roughly <=33% of HDSIs business from humanoid robots by 2031, potentially rising to >66% by 2036.

• Valuation: The 5,600 JPY target price is based on a 32.0× EV/EBITDA multiple applied to a JPY 17,372mn EBITDA estimate for FY3/2027. Cyclicality and the humanoid robot theme underpin the upside.

• Performance Metrics (FYE Mar):

  • Revenue: 55,646 Mn JPY (F24A), expected at 66,046 Mn JPY (F25E), 79,378 Mn JPY (F26E)
  • Reported P/E: 104.9 (F24A), expected at 220.6 (F25E), falling to 55.4 (F26E)
  • EV/Sales: Declining trend
  • EV/EBITDA: Falling from 46.6 (F24A) to 4.7 (F26E target)
  • Outperformance: The stock is expected to outperform the benchmark index by +15+ pp.

• Investment Implications: Reiterate "Outperform". Target Price remains JPY 5,600.

• Downside Risks:

  • Weaker than expected global robot demand.
  • Losing market share to competitors (HDSI has >50% global share).
  • Japanese Yen appreciation.