20250526-Bernstein-默克集团（MRK）_默克集团_2025年第一季度后观点及模型更新-制药业务更强但仅逐步复苏_17页_1mb

Merck KGaA 1Q25 Performance and Updated Guidance

Key Highlights

• Company Rating: Reiterated to Market-Perform with a price target cut to €147 from €168.
• Revenue Guidance: Revised FY25 revenue guidance to €20.9-22.4bn from €21.5-22.9bn.
• Divisional Performance:
  • Healthcare: Strongest division, driven by Cardiovascular/Metabolism and multiple sclerosis franchises.
  • Life Science: Recovery at Process Solutions but slowed in academic research.
  • Electronics: Semiconductor demand remains muted despite AI-related growth.

Quoted Statements

• Revenue for the division [Healthcare] increased by 3.4% at constant exchange rates (CER), exceeding consensus.
• Acquisition of [SpringWorks Therapeutics] expected to be accretive by 2027.

Valuation

• New target price: €147 (down from €168).
• DCF model shows EV/EBITA of 11% premium vs. the rest of the Pharma sector.
• Sum-of-the-Parts valuation considers a 10% conglomerate discount.

Risks

• Downside: Unexpected erosion of the tail portfolio or higher R&D costs in Healthcare.
• Upside: Positive impact from Mavenclad and Bavencio.