2011年-世界发展银行全球_Economic_Impact_of_the_2007_Earthquake_in_the_Water_and_Sanitation_Sector_in_Four_Provinces_of_Peru___What_Did_Unpreparedness_Cost_the_Country__16页_1mb

Summary of the Economic Impact of the 2007 Earthquake in Peru on the Water and Sanitation Sector

Core Content

This document presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of the August 15, 2007 earthquake in Peru on the water and sanitation sector. It focuses on the four provinces of Ica, Pisco, Chincha, and Cañete, examining both direct and indirect effects, as well as macroeconomic consequences.

Main Findings

Direct Economic Impact

• The earthquake caused significant damage to water and sanitation infrastructure, with total direct costs estimated at US$27.62 million.
• Pisco accounted for 47% of the total direct damage, reflecting both the high intensity of the earthquake and the pre-existing poor condition of its sewage system.
• If proper maintenance and earthquake-resistant materials had been used, 96% of the direct costs could have been saved, reducing the total to US$1.02 million.
• The cost of restoring the systems to pre-earthquake levels was 6.4 times the annual water and sanitation expenditures of the region's provincial municipalities in 2007.

Indirect Economic Impact

• The operating profit of the four utilities fell by US$2.36 million, which is 29% of their total 2007 sales.
• This decline was attributed to reduced billing and water losses due to the failure to repair direct damages, as well as increased operating costs during the reconstruction period.

Opportunity Cost

• The total opportunity cost to the urban water and sanitation sector, combining direct and indirect effects, is estimated at US$30 million.
• This sum could have been used to provide services to 160,888 residents, including 8,183 potable water connections and 7,925 sewage connections.

Key Impacts on Households and Businesses

Household Wellbeing

• 66% of households in the four provinces were affected by the earthquake.
• 81% of households experienced interruptions or changes in water service over a 16-day period.
• The average additional expenditure per household due to lack of drinking water was US$5.36 per week, equivalent to 4% of the average weekly income in the Ica department.
• Total additional household expenditure for the region was estimated at US$470,000.
• Earthquake-related health care expenditure ranged between US$6.1 million and US$7.5 million, which is comparable to the central government's health care spending in Ica in 2007.
• The monetary value of increased domestic chores for women in the region was US$13.93 million, equivalent to 0.3% of Ica's GDP in 2007.
• 65% of households with at least one member affected by an earthquake-related illness spent US$18–21 per week on health care, with only 23% receiving free care.

Business Impact

• 35% of businesses reported that power outages were the worst negative impact, while 25% cited damage to and problems with water and sanitation services.
• 80% of businesses experienced a small impact, but 52% saw sales affected for more than two months.
• 60% of businesses in the sample that had investment plans prior to the earthquake had to halt or postpone these plans.
• 70% of businesses lacked earthquake insurance or coverage for accidents and other business-related risks.

Macroeconomic Effects

• The GDP of the water and sanitation sector in Ica declined by US$180,000 per year in 2007 and 1.3% in 2008.
• The trade balance was not significantly affected since the utilities did not export, but import levels increased due to the demand for construction materials.
• The impact on public finances was negative, with a net loss of US$19.3 million (2007–2009).
• Total government sales taxes on reconstruction investments were approximately US$2.5 million.
• Prices and inflation were influenced by the surge in demand for construction materials like PVC pipes, which increased by 16% between August and October 2008.
• The employment impact showed a 6% increase in domestic activities and a 4% decrease in the tertiary sector workforce, with a 21% employment activity change for women and 14% for men.

Conclusion

• The study highlights the significant economic losses caused by the lack of disaster risk reduction measures in the water and sanitation sector.
• It underscores the importance of ongoing infrastructure maintenance and the use of earthquake-resistant materials to mitigate future losses.
• The findings suggest that prevention measures could have saved up to 96% of the direct costs, emphasizing the need for integrated risk management in public utilities.