深度报告-2025-08-25-世界银行-支持保加利亚_罗马尼亚和斯洛伐克的边缘化家庭-试点评估报告（英）页_85页_2mb

Summary of Pilot Evaluation for Marginalized Households in Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovakia

Background and Objectives

The pilot intervention aimed to enhance the socioeconomic inclusion of marginalized Roma households through financial inclusion and personalized support using the Poverty Stoplight (PSL) methodology. Key objectives included promoting financial literacy, improving labor market participation, and building socio-emotional skills. The evaluation assessed the process and outcomes across three countries, accounting for structural barriers and diverse local contexts.

Methodology

• Theory of Change: A dual-pillar approach: (1) financial inclusion through literacy training; (2) self-empowerment via PSL self-assessment, goal-setting, and coaching.
• Evaluation Design:
  • Process Evaluation: Mixed-methods (quantitative and qualitative data) to assess implementation fidelity, engagement, and contextual adaptations.
  • Outcome Evaluation: Trend analysis for Bulgaria and Romania, randomized control trial (RCT) for Romania only, focusing on short-term outcomes like financial literacy, employment, and well-being.

Key Findings

• Beneficiary Profile: Beneficiaries faced entrenched poverty, low financial literacy, and limited access to services. High household dependency and seasonal migration were prevalent, varying across countries.
• Process Evaluation: Implementation varied significantly by country and locality. Challenges included inadequate outreach, difficulties in participant self-assessment, inconsistent coaching, and the use of incentives (e.g., vouchers) that sometimes undermined intrinsic motivation. Beneficiaries showed trust in facilitators but high dropouts due to barriers like time constraints and low educational levels.
• Outcome Evaluation:
  • In Romania, a control group showed increased household employment and reduced perceived marginalization but limited effects on financial outcomes and socio-emotional skills, likely due to seasonality and measurement issues.
  • In Bulgaria and Slovakia, trend analyses revealed mixed results due to short timelines, seasonal effects, and small sample sizes. Seasonality impacted employment and financial behaviors, while structural barriers limited sustained behavioral change.

Conclusions and Recommendations

The pilot demonstrated that motivated facilitators could build trust and deliver core interventions but faced challenges in achieving deep behavioral change due to a mismatch between program design and participant capacities, shortened timelines, and external factors like seasonality. Recommendations include:

• Align program tools with simpler, more intuitive designs.
• Extend implementation periods to allow for sustained engagement.
• Use incentives judiciously to avoid undermining intrinsic motivation.
• Strengthen referrals and services for employment and financial inclusion to better address priorities.