2023-10-21-美联储-谁最容易受到国际冲击_估计美国不同人口群体进口价格敏感性的差异_40页_1mb

Summary of "Who’s Most Exposed to International Shocks?" by Hottman and Monarch

Introduction

This paper examines differences in sensitivity to international price shocks across U.S. demographic groups, such as age, race, education, and sex. Using data from 1996-2018, the authors construct group-specific import price indexes to analyze how international shocks affect import and total inflation.

Methodology: The analysis combines U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey data for expenditure shares on imports across demographics and detailed price data from U.S. import transactions. A nested Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) demand system is used to estimate pass-through effects of exchange rate changes and foreign producer price movements.

Key findings:

• Demographic groups differ significantly in import price inflation. Black consumers and college graduates had higher import price inflation compared to rural consumers and high school dropouts.
• Exchange rate appreciation has differential pass-through: high school dropouts and rural consumers showed high sensitivity, while Black consumers exhibited low sensitivity. Foreign producer price inflation had varying pass-through, being high for younger consumers and Black consumers.
• International shocks account for about 80% of the cross-group variance in import price inflation.
• During 2021-2022, out-of-sample predictions show large disparities: Black consumers experienced a ~11 percentage point higher increase in import price inflation compared to high school dropouts, contributing to wider overall inflation inequalities.

Conclusion: The study highlights that exchange rate pass-through varies by demographics, providing new evidence on the distributional effects of international trade and monetary policy. These findings have implications for understanding inflation heterogeneity across consumer groups.