世界银行-乍得经济更新-特别章节：提高抗洪能力（英）-2023-60页_3mb

报告摘要

Chad's economy grew modestly in 2022, driven by high oil revenues but hindered by floods and security issues, reaching 2.2% GDP growth.
Non-oil sector performance lagged due to inadequate rainfall distribution and severe flooding.
Poverty increased significantly, rising to 38.7% by 2022, with extreme poverty affecting nearly 7 million people.
High food inflation (12.2% in 2022) was a major driver of poverty, particularly in rural areas where households earn most income.

Growth is projected to moderate to 3.2% in 2023, supported by gradual post-pandemic recovery and increased domestic revenue mobilization.
Inflation is expected to decline to 3% by 2025 as food inflation decreases, aided by government measures for food security.
Poverty reduction is modest, driven primarily by growth in the agriculture and services sectors, with limited linkages between the oil sector and the livelihoods of the poor.

Flooding is a major disaster risk in Chad, with climate change expected to intensify its frequency and severity, leading to significant GDP losses by 2050.
Urbanization without proper planning exacerbates flood risk, particularly in N’Djamena, where up to 74% of built-up areas are exposed to a 1-in-100-year flood.
Policy recommendations include strengthening early warning systems, improving climate-resilient infrastructure, and enhancing social protection for vulnerable households.

Chad achieved a fiscal surplus of 4.5% in 2022 due to high oil revenues, but face challenges from high-debt servicing costs and reliance on volatile oil revenues.
Debt service-to-revenue ratio improved to below the 14% threshold from 2024.
Revenue mobilization efforts include digitalizing tax collection and adhering to commitments under the G20 Common Framework.

Climate change poses significant risks to economic growth and poverty reduction, necessitating urgent adaptation strategies.
Expansion of climate-resilient policies will yield substantial economic gains, outweighing the costs of inaction.
Sustainable development is constrained by security risks, weak governance, and limited institutional capacity.

展开完整摘要