2025-06-09-Jefferies-杰富瑞全球银行估值比较_29页_1mb

Jefferies Global Bank Valuation Comps Summary (09/06/2025)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the performance and valuation trends of global and regional banks as of June 9, 2025. It highlights key financial metrics such as price returns, earnings, capital returns, and valuation ratios across various regions. The document also includes insights from analysts on specific bank performance and market dynamics, such as earnings results, regulatory changes, and economic factors.

Key Regions and Performance Highlights

Global Banks

• Market Cap: $10,572 billion
• Price Return (1M): +6%
• Adj. P/E (2025e): 11.3x
• Adj. EPS (2025e): 9.4x
• P/TBV: 1.8x
• TBVps (2025e): 3.9%
• Yield: 40%
• ROTE: 14.2%

Europe

• Market Cap: $1,957 billion
• Price Return (1M): +5%
• Adj. P/E (2025e): 9.2x
• Adj. EPS (2025e): 7.5x
• P/TBV: 1.2x
• TBVps (2025e): 5.2%
• Yield: 48%
• ROTE: 13.9%

North America

• Market Cap: $3,592 billion
• Price Return (1M): +6%
• Adj. P/E (2025e): 13.6x
• Adj. EPS (2025e): 10.8x
• P/TBV: 2.7x
• TBVps (2025e): 2.7%
• Yield: 34%
• ROTE: 17.8%

Latin America (LATAM)

• Market Cap: $337 billion
• Price Return (1M): -1%
• Adj. P/E (2025e): 7.2x
• Adj. EPS (2025e): 5.9x
• P/TBV: 1.6x
• TBVps (2025e): 6.2%
• Yield: 47%
• ROTE: 14.4%

Asia-Pacific

• Market Cap: $463 billion
• Price Return (1M): +7%
• Adj. P/E (2025e): 13.5x
• Adj. EPS (2025e): 10.9x
• P/TBV: 1.9x
• TBVps (2025e): 3.1%
• Yield: 36%
• ROTE: 13.3%

Key Insights and Trends

European Banks

• French Banks: Strong April life inflows indicate positive sentiment, boding well for Q2 results. Strong capital returns were noted in Q1.
• Italian Banks: Continued performance with strong capital returns.
• Spanish Banks: Shift in narratives, re-assessing revenue and valuation drivers. Housing-related bills are under review.
• Swedish Banks: Improved volumes and margins in April 2025. Strong profitability recorded in Q1.
• UBS: A turning point in its performance, but not a clear clearing event.
• Alpha: Strong start to the year with a record quarter for profitability.
• Eurobank: Diversification benefits are supporting loan growth.

Latin American Banks

• Brazil: Fiscal policies and economic stability are key drivers. Positive trends observed in April despite trade uncertainties.
• Mexico: Fintech credit data shows 3.5% MoM growth. Loan growth remains resilient.
• Peru & Argentina: Mixed performance with some banks showing positive trends, while others face challenges.
• Banco do Brasil: Strong performance in the long term but weak in short-term price return.

North American Banks

• US Regional and Mid-cap Banks: Positive outlook with potential for capital return.
• Canadian Banks: Steady performance with credit and trading as key drivers.
• US Universal Banks: Strong price returns, with a focus on capital return.
• US Brokers/Dealers: Positive price returns, with capital return expectations.
• US Trust/Custody Banks: Strong performance with notable capital return.
• US Regional Banks: Positive trends in price return and capital return.
• US Consumer Finance: Strong performance with capital return expectations.

Asian Banks

• India: RBI is taking measures to boost growth, with positive sentiment on banks and NBFCs. MFI trends show stress remaining higher in 1H25 but easing thereafter.
• China: Positive economic momentum, with a focus on trade and market dynamics.
• Hong Kong: Stable price returns with moderate valuation trends.
• Japan: Steady performance with slight valuation improvements.
• South Korea: Positive price return with stable valuation ratios.
• South East Asia: Mixed performance with positive price return and valuation trends.

Bottom Performers

North America

• Bottom 5 (1 Month):
  • Bank of Hawaii: -6%
  • Old National: -2%
  • Western Alliance: -11%
  • Columbia Banking: -11%
  • Webster: -2%

North East Asia

• Bottom 5 (1 Month):
  • Bank Bohai: -1%
  • Kaskombank: -0%
  • SCB X: -2%
  • Bangkok Bank: -7%
  • Bank of Ayudhya: -11%

Middle East

• Bottom 5 (1 Month):
  • Alimna Bank: -9%
  • Bank Abilaid: -21%
  • Riyad Bank: -3%
  • Al Rajhi Bank: -1%
  • Banque Saudi Fransi: -0%

Europe

• Bottom 5 (1 Month):
  • BPER: +29%
  • Credito Emiliano: +14%
  • Credit Agricole: +24%
  • BCV: +12%
  • PKO Bank: +16%

LATAM

• Bottom 5 (1 Month):
  • BBVA Argentina: -5%
  • Banco AV Villas: +6%
  • Banco Macro: -20%
  • Grupo Superviente: -18%
  • Banco do Brasil: -10%

Summary of Key Financial Metrics

Analyst Notes

• Joe Dickerson, Jonathan Pierce, Marco Nicolai, Inigo Vega, Alex Demetriou: Highlighted key trends in European and Latin American banks, including performance, regulatory updates, and capital return expectations.
• David Chiaverini, John Hecht, Daniel T. Fannon: Focused on US regional and mid-cap banks, macroeconomic scenarios, and investor feedback.
• Prakhar Sharma, Shujin Chen: Analyzed Indian financial trends, including RBI initiatives and MFI performance.
• Andrew Lyons: Covered Australian banks, noting the impact of interest rate changes and capital return.
• Naresh Narendra Bilandani: Provided insights into Middle East banks, particularly Saudi banks.
• John Aiken: Reviewed Canadian banks, emphasizing credit and trading performance.

This report provides a detailed view of the current state of global and regional bank valuations and performance, with a focus on key financial metrics and analyst insights.