2022-09-07-莱坊-Investment_Yield_Guide_September_2022_4页_433kb

Summary of Knight Frank Prime Yield Guide - September 2022

Purpose and Scope

This guide provides indicative prime yield data for commercial real estate markets, focusing on rack-rented properties and excluding bond-type transactions. It was published on 9 July 2022 by Knight Frank Intelligence, covering key sectors from September 2021 to September 2022. Data reflects market trends over these periods, with sentiment labels indicating strength or stability.

Market Yield Data Summary

• Overview: Most prime yield sectors showed weakening trends, with yields decreasing or remaining stable. Changes are highlighted in the data.
• City Prime (Single Let): Yields fell from 4.00% in Sep 2021 to varying rates in 2022, with most "WEAKER" sentiment.
• West End (Prime & Non-Core): Prime yields stable at around 3.25%, while Non-Core saw declines; overall sentiment "WEAKER" or "STABLE".
• Major Regional Cities (Single/Multi-let): Single-let yields dropped across periods (e.g., from 5.00% to 4.50%), with "WEAKER" labels. Multi-let yields also decreased or were stable.
• Other sectors like Distribution, Warehousing, Student Accommodation, and Healthcare consistently showed "WEAKER" trends with yield declines, except Stable segments.
• Debt Market Impact: Global reference rates surged due to central bank rate hikes and inflation concerns, leading to higher borrowing costs and market uncertainty.

Debt and Global Context

• Debt Increases: Significant rise in all-in debt costs; expected ECB and BoE rate hikes could peak by early 2023, with potential impacts on UK commercial real estate fundamentals.
• Oil Price Cap Discussions: G7 agreed on a temporary price cap on Russian oil to curb inflation, which may support energy markets but face unintended consequences.
• ESG Focus: Pop-up shops were discussed as a potential ESG solution for retail vacancies, aiming to address sector challenges.

Key Research Areas

• Themed Retail Property: Various schemes (e.g., Sustainable, Neighbourhood) showed yield variations, with most "WEAKER" sentiment due to economic pressures.
• Global Economic Trends: Link to inflation, growth strategies, and infrastructure investment, emphasizing real estate's role.
• Contact Points: Key experts include Jeremy Tham, Emily Miller, Richard Booth, Chris Galloway, Matthew Dichler, Will Matthews for valuation, lending, and investment advice.
• Additional Insights: Knight Frank highlights expertise in sectors like Healthcare, Student Accommodation, and emerging areas; offers strategic advice based on global market forecasts.

The guide emphasizes a cautious outlook for commercial real estate yields, driven by economic tightening, inflation, and geopolitical factors.