世界经济论坛-首席经济学家2021年中展望（英文）-2021.6-21页_2mb

Chief Economists Outlook – June 2021 Summary

Core Content

The Chief Economists Outlook – June 2021 report, published by the World Economic Forum's Centre for the New Economy and Society, provides an analysis of the global economic environment post-COVID-19, focusing on recovery momentum, economic scarring, domestic polarization and international divergence, and the acceleration of the climate transition. It draws on the insights of leading chief economists from both public and private sectors, emphasizing the need for coordinated and transformative policy responses.

Main Points

1. Shaping the Recovery Momentum

• Global Growth Forecast: The report predicts an average global growth rate of 5.5% to 6% for 2021, with a recovery of global GDP to pre-COVID levels expected by the first half of 2022.
• Key Drivers of Recovery:
  • Vaccine Roll-out: Rapid vaccination in high-income economies has been a key enabler of recovery.
  • Government Support: Generous fiscal stimulus has played a major role in supporting recovery, particularly in the US, EU, and China.
• Fiscal Measures:
  • The US has implemented three major packages: the CARES Act (2020), the $868 billion (2020), and the American Rescue Plan (2021), totaling $1.844 trillion (8.8% of GDP).
  • The EU has allocated €750 billion (Next Generation EU) and €540 billion in emergency relief, making up 10% of EU27 GDP.
  • China has spent 4.7% of GDP on fiscal stimulus, with a focus on public health and social welfare.
• Transformative Power:
  • The EU is seen as having the most transformative recovery plan, followed by the US and China.
  • Concerns exist about the proportionality of stimulus packages, particularly in the US, and the lack of long-term structural transformation in most fiscal measures.
• Inflation and Monetary Policy:
  • The US recovery plan, combined with increased savings rates, has led to reawakened inflation.
  • Central banks are expected to raise interest rates as early as the first half of 2022, though price stability remains their primary focus.

2. Avoiding Economic Scarring

• Key Risks:
  • The greatest risk of scarring comes from bankruptcies.
  • Labour market disruptions are also a major concern, with permanent drops in participation and mismatch between skills and post-pandemic jobs.
  • Global production networks are seen as the least risky area of scarring.
• Labour Market Trends:
  • In the US, nearly 3 million women have left the workforce due to burnout and lack of childcare.
  • Gen Z has experienced significant impacts, with 78% affected professionally and 39% losing jobs or being furloughed.
  • Optimism among Gen Z employees has dropped by 10% during the pandemic.
• Monetary Policy:
  • Central banks are unlikely to prioritize the green transition or social equity in the short term.
  • Rate hikes are expected, but asset prices are likely to remain decoupled from the real economy in the medium run.

3. Reversing Domestic Polarization and International Divergence

• Domestic Polarization:
  • The crisis has deepened inequalities, particularly affecting disadvantaged groups based on race, gender, and socioeconomic status.
  • Automation has contributed to labour market polarization, with routine jobs being replaced by non-routine ones.
  • Upskilling and reskilling are identified as the most important pathways to address these issues.
• International Divergence:
  • Convergence between countries has stalled, with low- and middle-income countries lagging behind due to limited access to vaccines and financial support.
  • COVAX and international grants are seen as critical to bridge the gap.
  • IP protection on vaccines should be lifted to accelerate production and distribution.
• Protectionism and Geopolitical Tensions:
  • Protectionist measures may increase in response to domestic pressures.
  • Tensions between major economies are expected to rise, driven by self-reliance rhetoric and trade conflicts.
  • Cyberattacks are seen as a major risk to global recovery and future growth.

4. Accelerating the Climate Transition

• Climate Transition Importance:
  • The climate transition is a critical priority for the future, with policy uncertainty being the main bottleneck for private investment.
  • Green and digital transformation is seen as a twin transformation opportunity, with firms that excel in both likely to become industry leaders.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • A uniform carbon price is considered one of the most effective policy tools to achieve climate neutrality.
  • Carbon taxes are supported by the majority of respondents as a key mechanism for reducing emissions.
  • Social and regulatory nudges are needed alongside carbon pricing to ensure equitable outcomes.
• Net-Zero Targets:
  • The optimal deadline for net-zero commitments is not clearly defined, but 2050 is seen as too distant by many.
  • Some suggest targets should be advanced, even to before 2035.
  • The likelihood of achieving net-zero is 50% for governments and 62% for businesses.

Key Information

• Recovery is uneven: Countries with better access to vaccines and financial resources are recovering faster.
• Fiscal stimulus is critical, but long-term transformation is lacking in most packages.
• Labour market polarization is increasing, especially among women and younger generations.
• Climate action is seen as a priority, but policy coordination and investment in green skills are essential.
• Global cooperation is needed to address disparities and accelerate the green transition.
• Central banks will prioritize price stability, but rate hikes are likely in 2022.

Conclusion

The report underscores the complex and uncertain path to recovery, emphasizing the need for well-targeted policies, global cooperation, and transformative action in both domestic and international contexts. It calls for a rethinking of the social contract, greater investment in green and digital skills, and more equitable fiscal support to ensure a just and sustainable recovery.