世界经济论坛-首席经济学家展望：2023年5月（英）-30页_407kb

Chief Economists Outlook Summary (May 2023)

Overview

The World Economic Forum's May 2023 Chief Economists Outlook highlights significant economic uncertainty, driven by persistent headwinds such as geoeconomic tensions, high inflation, and financial sector volatility. The report, based on a survey of chief economists conducted in March-April 2023, reveals polarized views on key economic indicators, with disagreements on global recession likelihood and inflation trajectories. It emphasizes the challenges faced by policymakers and businesses in navigating an unstable global economic landscape.

Key Findings

Economic Growth and Uncertainty

• Growth Trajectory: Global growth remains patchy, with near-unanimous optimism in Asia (particularly China), where economic activity is expected to rebound substantially. Europe shows improvement but still faces weak or very weak growth expectations for 2023, while Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East and North Africa regions are projected to underperform. Growth divergence is influenced by factors including supply chain adjustments, tighter financial conditions, and geopolitical events.

• Inflation: Core inflation persists despite declining headline rates, remaining high or very high in most regions through 2023. This has led to ongoing cost-of-living crises, especially in developing economies, where currency depreciation and wage stagnation exacerbate pressures. Expert opinions are divided, but consensus leans toward inflation's negative impact on households and economies.

Financial Sector and Monetary Policy

• Banking Instability: Recent bank failures in the US and Europe have heightened financial risks, leading to a credit squeeze and potential "zombie bank" issues. Central banks face a trade-off between controlling inflation through aggressive tightening and preserving financial stability.

• Monetary Policy: Interest rates are likely to slow in 2023, but achieving inflation targets faces challenges. Higher rates pose significant risks to property markets, sovereign debt, and corporate stability, with equitable implications for labor markets varying by region.

Globalization and Supply Chains

• Industrial Policy Resurgence: Chief economists expect industrial policy to become widespread over the next three years, driven by geopolitical tensions and national priorities. This could lead to geoeconomic fragmentation, reduced competition, and increased sovereign debt concerns.

• Supply Chain Adaptations: Businesses are adopting strategies like supply diversification, resilience-focused sourcing, and alignment with geopolitical faultlines to reshape global supply chains. Asia, particularly China, may face negative impacts from these shifts, while regions like South Asia and Latin America could benefit. Environmental sustainability and AI technologies are also emerging as key drivers.

Conclusions

The global economy is marked by deep uncertainty, stemming from policy disagreements, supply chain adjustments, and divergent regional outlooks. Tight financial conditions and inflationary pressures continue to strain households and economies, while industrial policy and supply chain reconfiguration signal a fragmented future. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated efforts from governments and businesses to enhance resilience amid ongoing volatility.