战略与国际研究中心-TWQ_-Turkey-s-Strategic-Vision-and-Syria_14页_281kb

Turkey's Strategic Vision and Syria: A Summary

Core Content

Turkey's foreign policy has undergone a significant transformation over the past decade, moving away from its traditional Kemalist stance of non-involvement in Middle Eastern affairs. Since the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2002, Turkey has become an active player in the region, engaging with Syria, Iran, and Iraq, and assuming a leadership role in international organizations like the OIC and the Arab League. This shift has sparked debates about whether Turkey is moving away from its Western orientation or simply broadening its strategic reach.

Main Views

• Shift from Kemalism: Turkey has moved away from the strict secularism and non-involvement of the Kemalist tradition, which was based on the ideology of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.
• Neo-Ottomanism: The AKP's foreign policy is rooted in a vision of re-engaging with the Ottoman legacy, emphasizing a more active and confident role in the Middle East and beyond.
• Turkish Gaullism: This emerging concept reflects a desire for Turkish independence and self-determination, often at odds with Western influence, particularly the EU and the US.
• Strategic Depth: The "zero-problems with neighbors" policy aims to build stronger regional ties and reduce reliance on Western alliances.
• Multiculturalism: Neo-Ottomanism promotes a more inclusive, multicultural approach to Turkish identity, which contrasts with the Kemalist emphasis on assimilation and secularism.

Key Information

Neo-Ottomanism

• Definition: A policy that emphasizes Turkey's historical and cultural ties to the Middle East, North Africa, and the Balkans, while promoting a more active foreign policy.
• Economic Drivers: Turkey's growing economy and export capacity have bolstered its regional influence, with exports to the Middle East increasing from 9.6% in 2002 to 20.3% in 2011.
• Multiculturalism: Encourages a broader understanding of Turkish identity, including Kurdish and Muslim elements, without promoting Islamicization.
• Diplomatic Role: Turkey has taken a mediating role in several conflicts, including the Syrian-Israeli conflict and the nuclear standoff with Iran.

Kemalism

• Traditional Stance: Emphasizes strict secularism, non-involvement in Middle Eastern affairs, and a focus on maintaining the secular foundations of the republic.
• Anti-Western Sentiment: The Kemalist establishment has grown increasingly skeptical of Western influence, especially regarding the EU and the US.
• Concerns: Views the AKP's policies as a threat to secularism and national identity, particularly due to perceived support for Kurdish separatism and Islamic revival.
• Eurasian Alternative: Advocates for closer ties with non-Western powers like Russia, China, and Syria, to counter Western pressures.

Turkish Gaullism

• Convergence: Represents a blend of Neo-Ottomanism and Kemalism, emphasizing Turkish national pride, independence, and a balanced approach to both the West and the Islamic world.
• Nationalism and Self-Interest: Seen as the primary drivers of Turkish foreign policy, rather than Islam or Western alignment.
• Economic Confidence: Turkey's economic recovery and growth have contributed to a more assertive foreign policy stance.
• EU and NATO: The AKP's pro-EU stance has been met with resistance from Kemalists, who see it as a threat to national sovereignty. Some suggest Turkey may eventually question its NATO membership.

Syria and the Arab Uprisings

• Syria's Role: Syria has been a key partner for Turkey, especially after the normalization of relations in the late 1990s.
• Arab Awakening: The 2011 Arab uprisings forced Turkey to take sides, leading to a significant shift in its policy toward Syria.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Turkey supported the Syrian opposition, hosted key meetings, and became a central player in the conflict.
• Strategic Dilemma: Turkey's involvement in Syria has created a complex balance between its regional ambitions and its strategic interests, as the Assad regime's actions risk regional sectarian conflict.

Conclusion

Turkey's foreign policy is best understood through the lens of its evolving strategic visions—Neo-Ottomanism, Kemalism, and Turkish Gaullism. These visions reflect a broader, more confident approach to international relations that transcends the simplistic "Islamic vs. secular" narrative. While the AKP has pursued closer ties with the Islamic world, it has not abandoned its Western aspirations, particularly EU integration. The Syrian crisis has further complicated this balancing act, highlighting Turkey's internal tensions and its desire to assert its own strategic identity in the region.