战略与国际研究中心-Russia-and-Eurasia-Program-Update-February-2012_5页_220kb

CSIS Russia & Eurasia Program Summary - February 2012

Core Content

The CSIS Russia & Eurasia Program released a Program Update in February 2012, highlighting the evolving political and socio-economic landscape of Russia. The update emphasized the return of genuine uncertainty about Russia's political future after a near-decade-long period of stability. This uncertainty was marked by the poor performance of United Russia in the parliamentary elections, which was the first major electoral setback for Vladimir Putin since he entered national politics twelve years ago.

The update also noted the mass demonstrations in Moscow and other cities in December and February, which represented the largest protests in Russia since the end of the Soviet Union. These protests indicated a growing middle-class opposition dissatisfied with the current political system and demanding genuine modernization.

Main Views

• Putin's Political Future: While it is expected that Putin will be re-elected President in March 2012, the challenges he will face in May, when he is inaugurated, are new and significant. Stability and continuity, which were once his political strengths, may no longer be sufficient.

• Socio-Economic Factors: The growing prosperity of Russia under Putin's leadership is fueling opposition to his regime. Unless there is a dramatic economic downturn, this socio-economic discontent will continue to challenge the existing political order.

• Russia Balance Sheet Project: The launch of the Russia Balance Sheet Project Speaker Series in January 2012, titled Emerging Russian Futures: Transformation, Evolution, or Stasis?, was highlighted as a timely initiative to explore the future trajectory of Russia. The series aims to bring together Russian and American experts to enhance policy dialogue and understanding.

Key Information

Upcoming Events

• February 27, 2012: CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program will host a lunch discussion on Psychology of Revolt In Russia Today and the Future, featuring Dr. Leonid Gozman.
• February 29, 2012: A seminar on The End of the Post-Soviet Period in Russian Foreign Policy: What is Next? will be held, featuring Mr. Fyodor Lukyanov.

Past Events

• January 9, 2012: Inaugural seminar of the RBS Project Speaker Series with Dr. Mikhail Dmitriev, discussing socio-economic change and political transformation in Russia.
• December 6, 2011: Conference on Emerging Practices in Global Health Cooperation, focusing on BRICS nations' global health engagement.
• November 18, 2011: Conference on Global Narcotics Flows and the Global Financial and Economic Crisis, featuring Viktor Ivanov.
• November 16, 2011: Conference on The Future of U.S.-Russia Relations, with notable speakers from both countries.
• October 24–25, 2011: Conference on The Big Caucasus: Old Ethno-Political Conflicts and New Geopolitical Design, examining the Caucasus region's evolving role in regional and international security.

Publications

Several key publications and articles were released by CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program members in late 2011 and early 2012, including:

• Jeffrey Mankoff:

  • Who's a Russian? (February 21, 2012) – featured in The American Interest.
  • Russia's self-defeating game in Syria (February 1, 2012) – op-ed for CNN's Global Public Square.
  • The election cycles' impact on Russia-U.S. relations (December 14, 2011) – article for Valdai Discussion Club.
  • A tale of two Russian protests (December 12, 2011) – blog post for CNN's Global Public Square.

• Andrew Kuchins:

  • Russian Foreign Policy: Continuity in Change (December 19, 2011) – article in Washington Quarterly.
  • Russia, the 360-Degree Regional Power (November 13, 2011) – article in Current History.
  • Laying the Groundwork for Afghanistan's New Silk Road (December 5, 2011) – article in Foreign Affairs.
  • Comments on post-election protests and implications for the presidential race in Critical Questions (December 16, 2011).

• Sergey Markedonov:

  • Secrets of Transdnestr's Court (December 13, 2011) – article for Russia Profile.
  • The Unlikely Winners (November 15, 2011) – article for Russia Profile.
  • The Mountainous Road to the WTO (November 8, 2011) – article for Russia Profile.
  • Playing the King (October 18, 2011) – commentary for Commonspace.eu.

Media Appearances

• Jeffrey Mankoff was quoted in several articles and interviewed on topics such as Russia's identity and its role in Syria.
• Andrew Kuchins was featured in numerous media outlets, including Le Monde, RIA Novosti, and BBC News, discussing Russia's political and foreign policy developments.
• Sergey Markedonov was quoted and interviewed in various Russian and international media, covering issues such as the presidential election in Transnistria and Russia's relations with the West.

Conclusion

The CSIS Russia & Eurasia Program continues to be a key player in analyzing and discussing Russia's domestic and foreign policy challenges. The launch of the Russia Balance Sheet Project Speaker Series underscores the program's commitment to fostering dialogue between Russian and American experts. The increasing public dissatisfaction and the potential for political transformation signal a new phase in Russia's development, one that requires deeper analysis and engagement.