战略与国际研究中心-Russia-and-Eurasia-Program-Update-October-2011_9页_300kb

CSIS Russia & Eurasia Program Summary - October 2011

Core Content

The CSIS Russia & Eurasia Program provided a comprehensive analysis of the evolving dynamics in Russia and the broader Eurasian region during October 2011, focusing on political, economic, and security developments. The program emphasized the importance of understanding the multipolar nature of the region, where new actors like China, India, and Turkey are increasingly influencing affairs, and the need for the United States to adapt its policies accordingly.

Main Views and Key Information

Political Developments

• Vladimir Putin's Return to Presidency: It was anticipated that Putin would win the 2012 presidential election, with Medvedev likely becoming the new Prime Minister. The program suggested that this would lead to a continuation of policies rather than significant reform, though Putin was expected to address modernization issues in his next term.
• Continuity in Leadership: The Russian government's strategy under Putin and Medvedev was seen as one of continuity, with a focus on maintaining existing structures and policies.

U.S.-Russia Relations

• WTO Accession: Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) was expected to be approved at the WTO meeting in mid-December 2011. The next step would be Duma ratification, likely in early 2012. The U.S. Congress would need to approve Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status for Russia, which was expected to be a contentious issue.
• Reset Strategy: The program noted that the U.S. "reset" strategy with Russia was being tested, especially in light of the Syria vote. It emphasized the need for continued dialogue and cooperation, despite political tensions.

Regional Security and Geopolitical Trends

• Caucasus and Central Asia: The program highlighted the shifting geopolitical landscape in the Caucasus and Central Asia, where local actors and other global powers are playing a more significant role. The region was becoming more complex and multipolar.
• Arab Spring Impact: The program examined the implications of the Arab Spring on regional stability, particularly in Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus. It raised concerns about the potential for similar movements in the region and the rise of radical Islamic threats.
• Conflict in Abkhazia and South Ossetia: The program covered the ongoing discussions and international recognition of these breakaway regions, as well as the role of Russia in mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Events and Conferences

• "The Big Caucasus" Conference (October 24-25, 2011): This event focused on the domestic and external development of the Caucasian states, regional stakeholders, and implications for international relations. It also addressed economic and security challenges.
• "Russian Scenarios: Stagnation, Revolution, Development" (October 17, 2011): The seminar explored possible political futures for Russia, with a focus on the potential consequences of a return to a one-party system.
• "The U.S.'s 'New Silk Road Strategy'" (September 29, 2011): The conference analyzed the future of the U.S. strategy for Afghanistan, emphasizing the need for regional cooperation and the challenges of implementation.
• "Russia in a Multipolar World" (July 12, 2011): This event discussed the implications of a multipolar world on Russia-EU-U.S. relations, with a focus on security and strategic partnerships.

New Members and Collaborations

• Dr. Gordon Hahn: Joined the program as a Senior Associate (non-resident) in August 2011. He specializes in Russian and Eurasian politics, Islam, and international relations.
• Dr. Jeff Mankoff: Appointed as an Adjunct Fellow in October 2011. His expertise includes Russian/Eurasian affairs, great power relations, and energy security.

Publications and Media Highlights

• The program released several reports and articles on key issues such as the Arab Spring, the Caucasus, and Russia's energy strategy in Northeast Asia.
• Key figures like Andrew Kuchins and Sergey Markedonov were featured in major publications and media outlets, discussing various aspects of Russian and Eurasian policy, including the U.S.-Russia relationship, regional conflicts, and economic strategies.

Summary of Key Themes

• Continuity and Modernization: The Russian government's policies under Putin were expected to continue, but there was a growing recognition of the need for modernization.
• Multipolarity in Eurasia: The region is becoming more complex with the rise of new powers and the strengthening of local sovereignty.
• U.S. Engagement and Challenges: The U.S. was encouraged to engage with Russia on issues like WTO accession and regional security, despite political tensions.
• Regional Conflicts and Peace Processes: The program closely monitored conflicts in the Caucasus and Central Asia, with a focus on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Conclusion

The CSIS Russia & Eurasia Program remained highly active in 2011, providing critical analysis on Russia's political and economic landscape, U.S.-Russia relations, and the broader Eurasian security environment. The program's work emphasized the need for continued engagement and understanding of the region's evolving dynamics.