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Russian Economic Report (April 2012)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of Russia's economic performance and outlook for 2012, highlighting both achievements and challenges. It emphasizes the role of oil prices in supporting growth and the need for structural reforms to enhance economic resilience and diversification.

Main Points

Economic Performance in 2011

• GDP Growth: Russia's GDP growth reached 4.3% in 2011, matching the growth rate of 2010.
• Output Recovery: Output returned to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2011, driven by strong consumption and a rebound in non-tradable sectors.
• Fiscal and Current Account Surplus: The fiscal balance returned to a surplus, and the current account surplus reached $101 billion in 2011, up from $70 billion in 2010.
• Inflation and Inequality: Inflation dropped to its lowest level in two decades, and inequality declined.
• Employment: Employment returned to pre-crisis levels earlier than output, supported by solid wage growth.

Sectoral Contributions to Growth

• Consumption: Became the second-largest growth contributor in 2011, driven by falling unemployment and inflation.
• Inventories: Played a significant role in growth, especially in the second half of 2011.
• Non-Oil Sectors: Non-oil current account deficit reached 13% of GDP, highlighting the economy's vulnerability to oil price shocks.
• Agriculture: A strong rebound in agriculture contributed significantly to the overall growth, particularly in the tradable sector.
• Fixed Capital Investment: Remained sluggish, recovering slowly from the crisis.

Growth Trends and Recovery

• Slow Recovery: Russia's recovery from the 2008 crisis was slower compared to the 1998 crisis and other economies.
• GDP Components: Investment and imports lagged behind pre-crisis levels, while consumption held up better due to stronger fiscal policy.
• Income Convergence: Russia's convergence to high-income countries' income levels slowed post-2008 crisis, with labor productivity remaining low compared to other economies.

Balance of Payments

• Current Account Surplus: Supported by high oil prices, the current account surplus was $101 billion in 2011.
• Capital Flows: Net capital outflows increased in 2011, driven by global uncertainty and the euro area debt crisis.
• Foreign Reserves: The Central Bank of Russia increased its foreign reserves by $12 billion in 2011, despite capital outflows.
• Exchange Rate: The ruble appreciated in early 2012 due to improved global market sentiment, reversing a depreciation trend in late 2011.

Key Information

• Oil Dependency: Russia's economy remains heavily dependent on oil exports, with the non-oil current account deficit reaching 13% of GDP in 2011.
• Fiscal Policy: The government should use the current high oil prices to rebuild fiscal buffers and avoid procyclical policies.
• Monetary and Financial Policies: Continued focus on low inflation and strengthening financial oversight is essential.
• Structural Reforms: Removing barriers to growth and improving the business environment are critical to boosting investment and productivity.
• WTO Accession: Russia's accession to the WTO in 2012 presents a unique opportunity for economic development, which could be maximized through improved domestic conditions.

Economic Outlook for 2012

• GDP Growth: Projected to be around 3.5% under baseline scenarios, with potential for higher growth if oil prices remain strong.
• Current Account: Expected to remain positive, though non-oil deficits may persist.
• Inflation: Likely to rise later in the year due to delayed price increases in utilities and gasoline, as well as increased price pressures from labor shortages.
• Capital Flows: Expected to remain volatile, with potential for continued outflows due to global uncertainty.

Conclusion

Russia's economy has shown resilience and growth in 2011, supported by high oil prices and strong domestic demand. However, the recovery from the 2008 crisis has been slower than from the 1998 crisis, and the economy remains vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. Structural reforms and improved policy frameworks are needed to diversify the economy, strengthen growth potential, and enhance long-term stability. The WTO accession in 2012 offers a significant opportunity for Russia to boost its economic development, provided that domestic conditions are conducive to integration into the global market.